Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 22 January 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu (Istanbul) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	14:45	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	21:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Azerbaijan	21:45	CBC Sport
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	19:45	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	12:45	DAZN Canada
Chile	14:45	Disney+
China	01:45	ZhiBo8
Colombia	12:45	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	18:45	Sport 1
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	19:45	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	18:45	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
Germany	18:45	RTL+
Greece	19:45	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong Kong	01:45	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	18:45	RTL+
Iceland	17:45	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Ireland	17:45	Premier Sports 2 ROI
Israel	19:45	Sport 4
Italy	18:45	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Max
Kenya	20:45	Gotv
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	18:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	11:45	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	18:45	Ziggo Sport 5
New Zealand	06:45	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	18:45	Supersport Maximo 2
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North Macedonia	18:45	MaxTV GO, TDM Desporto
Norway	18:45	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	22:45	Tapmad
Peru	12:45	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	18:45	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	17:45	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	19:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	20:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	18:45	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	18:45	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
South Africa	19:45	SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	00:45	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	20:45	Tabii, TRT 1
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	17:45	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports Extra
Uruguay	14:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	CBS Sports Network, Fubo Sports Network, Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN
Venezuela	13:45	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	00:45	ON Football, ON Plus
International	17:45	Sport 24, VIX App


	Fenerbahçe		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.5	2.9
	2.45	3.5	2.7
	2.4	3.75	2.85
	2.72	3.55	2.33
	2.53	3.56	2.82
	2.38	3.4	2.7
	2.53	3.58	2.81
	2.37	3.6	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.71)	3.56 ↑ (3.43)	2.75 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenerbahçe
38.6%

Draw
26.8%

Aston Villa
34.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.2%

27%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

27.8%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fenerbahçe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aston Villa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.8%	16.3%	27.9%

Fenerbahçe - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 24 - 55.8%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 12 - 27.9%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 16.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fenerbahçe: 41% – 70.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Aston Villa (votes: 5 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Aston Villa (2.07) (votes: 4 - 57.1%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Fenerbahçe (1.41) (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 9 - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.5 - Fenerbahçe (2.40) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DNB - Fenerbahçe (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 21 - 67.7%). Aston Villa (votes: 10 - 32.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ederson (G) 27. Semedo N. 37. Skriniar M. (C) 24. Oosterwolde J. 18. Muldur M. 7. Fred 5. Yuksek I. 45. Nene D. 21. Asensio M. 9. Akturkoglu K. 10. Duran J.	40. Bizot M. (G) 2. Cash M. 3. Lindelof V. 5. Mings T. (C) 12. Digne L. 26. Bogarde L. 8. Tielemans Y. 19. Sancho J. 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
11. Alvarez E. 70. Aydin O. 39. Biterge E. (G) 13. Cetin T. (G) 14. Demir Y. E. 96. Karatas H. 4. Soyuncu C. 94. Talisca	16. Garcia A. 29. Guessand E. 53. Hemmings G. 20. Jimoh-Aloba J. 4. Konsa E. 22. Maatsen I. 24. Onana A. 52. Proctor S. (G) 14. Torres P. 64. Wright J. (G) 51. Young K.
Coaches
Tedesco D.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Sancho J. ⚽,
44', Nene D. 🟨,
45', Oosterwolde J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Digne L. 🟨,
56', Semedo N. ↓, Demir Y. E. ↑,
56', Nene D. ↓, Talisca ↑,
73', Yuksek I. ↓, Alvarez E. ↑,
75', Buendia E. ↓, Onana A. ↑,
75', Cash M. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
75', Rogers M. ↓, Guessand E. ↑,
75', Sancho J. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
78', Lindelof V. 🟨,
79', Muldur M. 🟨,
88', Skriniar M. 🟨,
89', Tielemans Y. 🟨,
90+2', Tielemans Y. ↓, Hemmings G. ↑,
90+5', Bogarde L. 🟨,
90+8', Guessand E. 🟨,

Preview

Fenerbahçe is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Aston Villa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Aston Villa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Brown A. (Injury) Elmaz B. (Inactive) Fall A. (Inactive) Guendouzi M. (Inactive) Gunok M. (Inactive) Mercan L. (Muscle Injury) Mor E. (Inactive) Musaba A. (Inactive) Szymanski S. (Groin Injury) Yandas M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Knee Injury) Kamara B. (Injury) Madjo B. (Inactive) Onana A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: McGinn J. (Injury) Sancho J. (Illness)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Aston Villa - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.76%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
18.01.26	Alanyaspor - Fenerbahçe	2:3 ✺
Turkish Cup
14.01.26	Beyoglu Yeni Carsi - Fenerbahçe	0:1 ✺
Turkish Super Cup
10.01.26	Galatasaray - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	2:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
23.12.25	Fenerbahçe - Beşiktaş	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWL
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
18.01.26	Aston Villa - Everton	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
07.01.26	Crystal Palace - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	3:1 ✺
30.12.25	Arsenal - Aston Villa	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWTWL

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