Match Info

Premier League - Round 19

Date: 30 December 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Emirates Stadium (London) 🌤️ ...

Referee: England D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	17:15	Disney+
Armenia	00:15	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Arabia, beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	07:15	Stan Sport
Austria	21:15	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Mix
Belgium	21:15	Play Sports 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:15	Arena Premium 1
Brazil	17:15	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	22:15	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	15:15	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Chile	17:15	Disney+
China	04:15	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	15:15	Disney+
Croatia	21:15	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:15	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	21:15	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	21:15	Amazon Prime Video, TV3+, Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	22:15	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	21:15	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1
Georgia	00:15	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	21:15	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport Mix, WOW
Greece	22:15	Nova Sports Premier League
Hong Kong	04:15	M Plus Live
Hungary	21:15	Arena 4
Iceland	20:15	SÝN Sport 3
India	01:45	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	03:15	Vidio
Ireland	20:15	NOW
Israel	22:15	Sport 1
Italy	21:15	Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	05:15	U-NEXT
Kenya	23:15	Gotv
Malaysia	04:15	Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League, Astro Sports
Mexico	14:15	FOX One
Nepal	02:00	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	21:15	Viaplay
New Zealand	09:15	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 4
Nigeria	21:15	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	21:15	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Peru	15:15	Disney+
Poland	21:15	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	20:15	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	22:15	Voyo
Serbia	21:15	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	04:15	Hub Premier 1, Hub Premier 2
Slovakia	21:15	Voyo
Slovenia	21:15	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South Africa	22:15	SuperSport Premier League
South Korea	05:15	Coupang Play
Spain	21:15	DAZN 1 Bar Espana, DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Sweden	21:15	Amazon Prime Video, Viaplay
Switzerland	21:15	Sky Sport Mix, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	03:15	AIS PLAY
Turkey	23:15	beIN Connect
Ukraine	22:15	Setanta Sports
United Kingdom	20:15	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go
Uruguay	17:15	Disney+
Usa	15:15	NBCSN, NBC Sports App, NBC, Peacock TV Premium, Peacock
Venezuela	16:15	Disney+
International	20:15	Sport 24, Sport 24 At Sea


	Arsenal		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.75	7
	1.44	4.75	7.4
	1.47	4.7	7.12	Watch
	1.44	4.4	6.5
	1.47	4.83	7.7	Watch
	1.45	4.75	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 (1.45)	4.7 ↑ (4.27)	7.06 ↑ (7.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal
66.1%

Draw
20.4%

Aston Villa
13.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.7%

22%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.3%

24.6%

11.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arsenal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.2%	11.1%	16.7%

Arsenal - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 72 users predict this event. Arsenal will win (votes: 52 - 72.2%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 12 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arsenal: 61.9% – 82.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 16 - 57.1%). Aston Villa (votes: 6 - 21.4%). Tie (votes: 6 - 21.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 50%) .

AH -0.5 - Aston Villa (6.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Aston Villa (2.74) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH -5 - Arsenal (51.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -5.5 - Arsenal (33.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 18 - 54.5%). Aston Villa (votes: 9 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raya D. (G) 12. Timber J. 2. Saliba W. 6. Gabriel 5. Hincapie P. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 36. Zubimendi M. 23. Merino M. 7. Saka B. 14. Gyökeres V. 19. Trossard L.	23. Martinez E. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 4. Konsa E. (C) 3. Lindelof V. 12. Digne L. 24. Onana A. 8. Tielemans Y. 19. Sancho J. 10. Buendia E. 27. Rogers M. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 10. Eze E. 9. Gabriel Jesus 29. Havertz K. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 20. Madueke N. 11. Martinelli G. 16. Norgaard C. 4. White B.	40. Bizot M. (G) 16. Garcia A. 53. Hemmings G. 20. Jimoh-Aloba J. 22. Maatsen I. 17. Malen D. 7. McGinn J. 56. Routh L. 64. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Arteta M.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Merino M. 🟨,
45+2', Rogers M. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', Onana A. ↓, McGinn J. ↑,
48', 1 - 0, Gabriel ⚽,
52', 2 - 0, Zubimendi M. ⚽, Odegaard M. (A),
61', Sancho J. ↓, Malen D. ↑,
61', Buendia E. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
69', 3 - 0, Trossard L. ⚽, Timber J. (A),
73', Merino M. ↓, Norgaard C. ↑,
77', Gyökeres V. ↓, Gabriel Jesus ↑,
77', Gabriel ↓, Lewis-Skelly M. ↑,
78', 4 - 0, Gabriel Jesus ⚽, Trossard L. (A),
79', Gabriel Jesus 🟨,
82', Bogarde L. 🟨,
82', Rogers M. ↓, Jimoh-Aloba J. ↑,
82', Tielemans Y. ↓, Hemmings G. ↑,
83', Timber J. ↓, White B. ↑,
83', Saka B. ↓, Madueke N. ↑,
90+4', 4 - 1, Watkins O. ⚽,
90+7', Watkins O. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 1.

Both teams have recently enjoyed a winning streak.

Arsenal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Arsenal is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Arsenal: Dowman M. (Ankle Injury) Havertz K. (Knee Injury) Mosquera C. (Ankle Injury) White B. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Knee Injury) Cash M. (Yellow Cards) Guessand E. (International duty) Kamara B. (Yellow Cards) Mings T. (Hamstring Injury) Torres P. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Calafiori R. (Injury)

We predict that Arsenal will win today's game, with odds of 1.44.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arsenal won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 39:22. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:14. (average 2.4:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Arsenal - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 64.68%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
27.12.25	Arsenal - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
23.12.25	Arsenal - Crystal Palace	2:1 penalties ✺
English Premier League
20.12.25	Everton - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Arsenal - Wolverhampton Wanderers	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Club Brugge - Arsenal	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWWW
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
27.12.25	Chelsea - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Aston Villa - Manchester United	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	West Ham United - Aston Villa	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Basel - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
06.12.25	Aston Villa - Arsenal	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
06.12.25	Aston Villa - Arsenal	2:1
18.01.25	Arsenal - Aston Villa	2:2
24.08.24	Aston Villa - Arsenal	0:2
14.04.24	Arsenal - Aston Villa	0:2
09.12.23	Aston Villa - Arsenal	1:0
18.02.23	Aston Villa - Arsenal	2:4
31.08.22	Arsenal - Aston Villa	2:1

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