Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 14

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, RedeTV!, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
World	TV Globo Internacional


	Flamengo		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	1.51	4.1	6
	1.55	4.33	5.5
	1.55	3.95	5.9
	1.59	4.2	6.38
	1.56	4.23	5.9
	1.53	3.8	5.5
	1.58	4.09	6.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.44)	4.1 ↑ (3.95)	5.88 ↓ (6.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
60.9%

Draw
23.1%

Vasco da Gama
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.6%

23.2%

13.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

21.7%

12.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Flamengo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	7.7%	15.4%

Flamengo - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Vasco will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 54% – 99.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira (C) 26. Alex Sandro 52. Evertton Araujo 21. Jorginho 19. Plata G. 7. Luiz Araujo 16. Samuel Lino 9. Pedro	1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 46. Cuesta C. 30. Robert Renan 6. Lucas Piton 2. Rodriguez J. 88. Cauan Barros 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 20. Brenner 10. Rojas J. 7. David
Substitutes
6. Ayrton Lucas 27. Bruno Henrique 13. Danilo 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 22. Emerson Royal 11. Everton 75. Mariano L. 8. Niguez S. 44. Vitao 64. Wallace Yan	28. Adson 11. Andres Gomez 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 18. Hinestroza M. 25. Hugo Moura 98. JP 43. Lucas Freitas 17. Moreira N. 82. Riquelme Avellar 4. Saldivia A. 77. Spinelli C. 3. Tche Tche
Coaches
Jardim L.	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Pedro ⚽, Plata G. (A),
41', Leo Pereira 🟨,
45+1', Plata G. 🟨,
45+2', Cauan Barros 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
53', Cuesta C. 🟨,
60', 2 - 0, Jorginho (Penalty Awarded),
60', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
65', David ↓, Andres Gomez ↑,
66', Brenner ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
66', Paulo Henrique ↓, Adson ↑,
70', Samuel Lino ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
70', Luiz Araujo ↓, de la Cruz N. ↑,
76', Rojas J. ↓, Moreira N. ↑,
81', Cauan Barros ↓, Hugo Moura ↑,
82', Jorginho ↓, Niguez S. ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Robert Renan ⚽, Moreira N. (A),
87', Alex Sandro 🟨,
90+1', Pedro ↓, Wallace Yan ↑,
90+7', 2 - 2, Hugo Moura ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 3.

Flamengo has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Vasco has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Flamengo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Flamengo is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Flamengo: Leo Pereira (Inactive) Lucas Paqueta (Muscle Injury) Pulgar E. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Vasco: Jair (Knee Injury) Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Flamengo: de Arrascaeta G. (Injury)

We predict that Flamengo will win today's game, with odds of 1.55.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 14 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 34:14. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Flamengo won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:10. (average 1.4:0.8).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Flamengo RJ: 58.98% Vasco: 0.09%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	29	18	7	4	57:25	32	61
14	Vasco	28	9	7	12	36:42	-6	34

Last Results with these Odds

Flamengo - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 63.64%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	0:4 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Flamengo - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Flamengo - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.04.26	Flamengo - Independiente Medellín	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWWWW
- Vasco da Gama
Copa Sudamericana
30.04.26	Vasco da Gama - Olimpia Asuncion	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Paysandu - Vasco da Gama	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Vasco da Gama - Audax Italiano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
21.01.26	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
21.09.25	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	1:1
19.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Flamengo	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.03.25	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	2:1
01.03.25	Vasco da Gama - Flamengo	0:1
15.02.25	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
15.09.24	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	1:1

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