Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 11

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Israel	Sport 1, Sport 4
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Suriname	SCCN
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Onefootball


	Fluminense		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.1	2.35	Watch
	2.87	3.2	2.5
	3.05	2.98	2.42	Watch
	3.26	3.15	2.48
	3.09	3.1	2.5
	3.1	2.9	2.38
	3.44	3.17	2.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↑ (2.86)	3.09 ↓ (3.19)	2.43 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
30.2%

Draw
30.7%

Flamengo
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

29.1%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

29.6%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

The ML Model estimate for Flamengo aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Fluminense - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Flamengo will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier (C) 3. Jemmes 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 35. Hercules 8. Martinelli 17. Canobbio A. 32. Acosta L. 90. Serna K. 9. John Kennedy	1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira 26. Alex Sandro 52. Evertton Araujo 20. Lucas Paqueta 19. Plata G. 10. de Arrascaeta G. (C) 16. Samuel Lino 9. Pedro
Substitutes
25. Alisson 5. Bernal F. 19. Castillo R. 23. Guga 13. Guilherme Arana 4. Ignacio 29. Millan J. 94. Otavio 10. PH Ganso 11. Savarino J. 98. Vitor Eudes (G) 34. Wesley Nata	6. Ayrton Lucas 27. Bruno Henrique 15. Carrascal J. 13. Danilo 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 22. Emerson Royal 7. Luiz Araujo 75. Mariano L. 44. Vitao 64. Wallace Yan
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Acosta L. ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
7', 0 - 1, Pedro ⚽, Samuel Lino (A),
38', Martinelli 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 0 - 2, Pedro ⚽, Samuel Lino (A),
65', Martinelli ↓, Savarino J. ↑,
65', John Kennedy ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
67', Samuel Lino ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
73', de Arrascaeta G. ↓, de la Cruz N. ↑,
73', Plata G. ↓, Carrascal J. ↑,
76', 1 - 2, Savarino J. ⚽,
81', Leo Ortiz ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
81', Pedro ↓, Danilo ↑,
86', Samuel Xavier ↓, Guga ↑,
86', Rene ↓, Guilherme Arana ↑,
89', Castillo R. 🟨,
90+1', Luiz Araujo 🟨,
90+1', Evertton Araujo 🟨,
90+2', Bruno Henrique 🟨,
90+5', Carrascal J. 🟥,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 2.

Recent performances by Fluminense have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Flamengo is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Flamengo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Flamengo could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 16:19. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 0.9:0.9).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Flamengo RJ: 58.98% Fluminense: 0.68%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	29	18	7	4	57:25	32	61
3	Fluminense	29	14	9	6	48:36	12	51

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Deportivo La Guaira - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.04.26	Coritiba - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
01.04.26	Fluminense - Corinthians	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Fluminense - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
18.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Fluminense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TTWWL
- Flamengo RJ
Copa Libertadores
08.04.26	Cusco - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.26	Flamengo - Santos	3:1 ✺
02.04.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Flamengo	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	Corinthians - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
19.03.26	Flamengo - Remo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.03.26	Fluminense - Flamengo	0:1 penalties
25.01.26	Fluminense - Flamengo	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
19.11.25	Fluminense - Flamengo	2:1
20.07.25	Flamengo - Fluminense	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
16.03.25	Flamengo - Fluminense	0:0
12.03.25	Fluminense - Flamengo	1:2
08.02.25	Fluminense - Flamengo	0:0

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