The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Fluminense 40.6%
Draw 29.5%
Vasco da Gama 29.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
53.4%
26.6%
20%
Our Initial ML Estimation
55.1%
25.8%
19.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fluminense's form might have worsened.
Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vasco da Gama's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+14.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fluminense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-10.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vasco da Gama, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
50%
37.5%
12.5%
Fluminense - Vasco da Gama Predictions
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Vasco will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 15.4% – 84.6%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH 0 - Fluminense (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 29. Millan J. 6. Rene 16. Nonato 8. Martinelli 17. Canobbio A. 10. PH Ganso (C) 30. Soteldo Y. 7. Hulk
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 46. Cuesta C. 30. Robert Renan 6. Lucas Piton 3. Tche Tche 5. Sosa S. 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 9. Colidio F. 19. Bruno Duarte 11. Gomez A.
Substitutes
32. Acosta L. 14. Cano G. 19. Castillo R. 22. Freytes J. 13. Guilherme Arana 21. Igor Rabello 46. Julio Fidelis 94. Otavio 28. Riquelme Felipe 11. Savarino J. 90. Serna K. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)
28. Adson 88. Cauan Barros 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 18. Hinestroza M. 43. Lucas Freitas 17. Moreira N. 83. Ramon Rique 82. Riquelme Avellar 2. Rodriguez J. 10. Rojas J. 77. Spinelli C.
Coaches
Marcao
Emanuel P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Gomez A. 🟨,
21', Freytes J. 🟨,
21', Daniel Fuzato 🟨,
40', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
45+5', Ignacio 🟨,
45+6', Soteldo Y. 🟨,
45+6', Hulk 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Colidio F. 🟨,
58', PH Ganso ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
60', Bruno Duarte ↓, Adson ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Acosta L. ⚽, Soteldo Y. (A),
74', Tche Tche ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
74', Paulo Henrique ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
74', Soteldo Y. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
84', Cuesta C. ↓, Ramon Rique ↑,
84', Adson ↓, Hinestroza M. ↑,
85', Hulk ↓, Guilherme Arana ↑,
85', Guga ↓, Julio Fidelis ↑,
Preview
This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 1.
At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
Vasco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Fluminense will hold a modest advantage in this match.
There will not play in Fluminense: Igor Rabello
(Injury)
John Kennedy
(Knee Injury)
Matheus Reis
(Knee Injury)
Samuel Xavier
(Injury)
There will not play in Vasco: Brenner
(Injury)
Cuiabano
(Inactive)
Jair
(Injury)
Mateus Carvalho
(Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Vasco: Rojas J.
(Inactive)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:25. (average 1.2:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.4:0.9).
Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now
Fluminense: 0.68% Vasco: 0.09%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Fluminense
29
14
9
6
48:36
12
51
14
Vasco
28
9
7
12
36:42
-6
34
Last Results with these Odds
Fluminense - the odds 1.74 are the expected chance of winning is 53.44%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.
Vasco da Gama - the odds 4.66 are the expected chance of winning is 19.98%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.
Argentina
Austria
Germany
North-central-america
Paraguay
Russia
Serbia
Uruguay
Usa
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Fabio (G) 
Millan J. 
Canobbio A. 
Soteldo Y. 
Sosa S. 
Moreira N. 
