Match Info

Date: 8 October 2022, Saturday

Location: The New Lawn (Nailsworth)

Referee: Edwards M. (Eng)


	Forest Green Rovers		Bolton Wanderers

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.6	1.85
	3.8	3.5	1.9
	4.15	3.45	1.92
	3.8	3.5	1.89
	4.37	3.7	1.86
	4.2	3.5	1.8
	4.2	3.68	1.9	Watch
	3.9	3.55	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.08 ↑ (3.73)	3.56 ↑ (3.38)	1.87 ↓ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forest Green Rovers
23.1%

Draw
26.5%

Bolton Wanderers
50.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

27.6%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

26.9%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forest Green Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5%	0%	95%

Forest Green Rovers - Bolton Wanderers Predictions

Users Predictions: Bolton Wanderers will win (19 of 20 users predict this - 95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs)).

Forest Green has the most likely position - 24 (22.28%), has project points - 39, has currently - 8, has a good chance of relegated (66%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Bolton has the most likely position - 6 (10.21%), has project points - 78, has currently - 20, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (37%), has a chance of promoted (20%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

This event has small quality 16, importance 34, small match rating 25. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Forest Green is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Bolton is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Forest Green could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bolton is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Forest Green won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Forest Green won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forest Green Rovers
English League One
01.10.22	Burton Albion - Forest Green Rovers	3:2 ✺
24.09.22	Forest Green Rovers - Exeter City	0:4 ✺
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	Newport County - Forest Green Rovers	1:2 ✺
English League One
17.09.22	Forest Green Rovers - Morecambe	1:2 ✺
13.09.22	Charlton Athletic - Forest Green Rovers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLWLT
- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
04.10.22	Cheltenham Town - Bolton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
01.10.22	Bolton Wanderers - Lincoln City	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	Tranmere Rovers - Bolton Wanderers	3:2 penalties ✺
English League One
17.09.22	Bolton Wanderers - Peterborough United	1:0 ✺
13.09.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Bolton Wanderers	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
27.03.21	Forest Green Rovers - Bolton Wanderers	0:1
12.09.20	Bolton Wanderers - Forest Green Rovers	0:1

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