Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 24

Date: 29 December 2022, Thursday

Location: The New Lawn (Nailsworth)

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)


	Forest Green Rovers		Burton Albion

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.5	2.5
	2.75	3.25	2.5
	2.75	3.4	2.55
	2.65	3.3	2.48
	2.9	3.45	2.51
	2.8	3.3	2.45
	2.86	3.52	2.49	Watch
	2.7	3.35	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.53)	3.38 ↑ (3.25)	2.5 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forest Green Rovers
34.2%

Draw
27.9%

Burton Albion
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

28.8%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

28.7%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forest Green Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	23.8%	47.6%

Forest Green Rovers - Burton Albion Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Forest Green will win (votes: 6 - 28.6%). Burton will win (votes: 10 - 47.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 23.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burton: 26.2% – 69%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Forest Green has the most likely position - 24 (30.76%), has project points - 40, has currently - 20, has a good chance of relegated (81%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Burton has the most likely position - 22 (15.54%), has project points - 45, has currently - 19, has a good chance of relegated (55%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 13, importance 43, small match rating 28. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Forest Green won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forest Green Rovers
English League One
26.12.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Forest Green Rovers	1:0 ✺
17.12.22	Derby County - Forest Green Rovers	4:0 ✺
10.12.22	Forest Green Rovers - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
03.12.22	Forest Green Rovers - Cambridge United	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
26.11.22	Forest Green Rovers - Alvechurch	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LLWWW
- Burton Albion
English League One
26.12.22	Burton Albion - Lincoln City	3:0 ✺
17.12.22	Barnsley - Burton Albion	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
13.12.22	Burton Albion - Accrington Stanley	2:4 ✺
English League One
10.12.22	Burton Albion - Derby County	1:1 ✺
03.12.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Burton Albion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
01.10.22	Burton Albion - Forest Green Rovers	3:2

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