Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 22

Date: 17 December 2022, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Joyce R. (Eng)


	Derby County		Forest Green Rovers

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.5	7
	1.44	4.4	6.5
	1.45	4.5	7.5
	1.45	4.4	6.2
	1.44	4.7	7.5
	1.47	4.33	6.5
	1.47	4.7	7	Watch
	1.46	4.4	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.46)	4.49 ↑ (4.43)	6.83 ↑ (6.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
65.1%

Draw
21.1%

Forest Green Rovers
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

21.2%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66%

20.6%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Forest Green Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.9%	5.3%	36.8%

Derby County - Forest Green Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 11 - 57.9%). Forest Green will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 35.7% – 80.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 7 and 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Derby has the most likely position - 4 (14.67%), has project points - 78, has currently - 31, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (52%), has a chance of promoted (29%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

Forest Green has the most likely position - 24 (19.96%), has project points - 43, has currently - 20, has a good chance of relegated (67%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 17, importance 41, small match rating 29. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

Recently Forest Green have a series of home games.

In this match Derby is indisputable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
10.12.22	Burton Albion - Derby County	1:1 ✺
03.12.22	Derby County - Sheffield Wednesday	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
27.11.22	Newport County - Derby County	1:2 ✺
English League One
18.11.22	Portsmouth - Derby County	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
15.11.22	Derby County - Torquay United	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TTWTW
- Forest Green Rovers
English League One
10.12.22	Forest Green Rovers - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
03.12.22	Forest Green Rovers - Cambridge United	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
26.11.22	Forest Green Rovers - Alvechurch	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
22.11.22	Forest Green Rovers - Cheltenham Town	1:2 penalties ✺
English League One
19.11.22	Oxford United - Forest Green Rovers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWWLT

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