Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 6

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Woudestein (Rotterdam)

Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Kenya	Gotv
Netherlands	ESPN 2
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Excelsior		Utrecht

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.9	2.88	Watch
	2.10	3.70	3.25
	2.25	3.6	2.95
	2.32	3.75	3.05
	2.18	3.79	3.02	Watch
	2.25	3.65	3
	2.11	4	3.14	Watch
	2.22	3.7	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.62)	3.76 ↑ (3.62)	3.02 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Excelsior
43.2%

Draw
25.3%

Utrecht
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

25.8%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

25.3%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Excelsior's performance.

Utrecht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Utrecht might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Excelsior that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Utrecht than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Utrecht could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	30.8%	7.7%

Excelsior - Utrecht Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Excelsior will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Utrecht will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Excelsior: 35% – 88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.50) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.53) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. van Gassel S. (G) 2. da Silva Moreira E. 4. Widell C. (C) 14. Plug J. 12. Bos K. 3. Meissen R. 7. Sliti A. 8. Yegoian I. 20. Hartjes L. 30. Thorsteinsson A. 19. Garden D.	1. Barkas V. (G) 2. Horemans S. 3. Didden M. 5. Panagiotou N. 23. Vesterlund N. 20. de Wit D. (C) 34. van den Berg D. 92. Zagre A. 11. Alarcon A. 9. Stepanov A. 15. Blake A.
Substitutes
16. Biai C. (G) 24. Cairo G. 9. Dominguez M. 23. Finey Y. 28. Groen N. 11. Jahanbakhsh A. 15. Janssen S. 21. Silva Timas I. 18. Sulzbacher V. 22. Turay O. 6. van Vianen D.	39. Amrabat N. 80. Broholm M. 10. Cathline Y. 33. Gadellaa K. (G) 32. Kloosterboer P. 18. Medic J. 6. Offerhaus G. 21. Ogidi Nwankwo N. 22. Padt S. (G) 17. van Duijn S. 8. van Overeem J.
Coaches
den Uil R.	Correia A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', 0 - 1, Stepanov A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
63', Stepanov A. ↓, Cathline Y. ↑,
63', Blake A. ↓, van Duijn S. ↑,
63', Alarcon A. ↓, Broholm M. ↑,
70', Bos K. ↓, Janssen S. ↑,
70', da Silva Moreira E. ↓, Sulzbacher V. ↑,
70', Garden D. ↓, Dominguez M. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Sliti A. ⚽, Thorsteinsson A. (A),
80', Thorsteinsson A. ↓, Jahanbakhsh A. ↑,
81', Vesterlund N. ↓, van Overeem J. ↑,
85', Hartjes L. ↓, Cairo G. ↑,
85', Dominguez M. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 2, de Wit D. ⚽,
90+5', Zagre A. ↓, Medic J. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 1.

Excelsior is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Utrecht has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Excelsior will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Excelsior: Naujoks N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Utrecht: Engwanda A. (Hamstring Injury) Jensen V. (Knee Injury) Jonathans M. (Knee Injury) Ohio N. (Knee Injury) Paredes K. (Inactive) Vesterlund N. (Injury) van Overeem J. (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Excelsior won 2 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 25:31. (average 1.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Excelsior won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.9:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15:9	6	11
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11:24	-13	5

Last Results with these Odds

Excelsior - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 35.62%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Utrecht - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 38.62%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
08.09.26	NEC Nijmegen - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Willem II - Excelsior	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Excelsior - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
07.08.26	Cambuur - Excelsior	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 TWWLW
- FC Utrecht
Dutch Eredivisie
08.09.26	Utrecht - Go Ahead Eagles	3:3 ✺
30.08.26	Utrecht - PSV Eindhoven	1:6 ✺
22.08.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Utrecht	3:3 ✺
15.08.26	Utrecht - AZ Alkmaar	1:4 ✺
09.08.26	Groningen - Utrecht	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
26.04.26	Excelsior - Utrecht	5:0
24.08.25	Utrecht - Excelsior	4:1
27.01.24	Excelsior - Utrecht	1:1
12.11.23	Utrecht - Excelsior	2:2
25.01.23	Utrecht - Excelsior	1:0
02.10.22	Excelsior - Utrecht	0:1
23.02.19	Utrecht - Excelsior	0:0

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