The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
NEC Nijmegen 49.6%
Draw 25.1%
Excelsior 25.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
65.2%
19.1%
15.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
75.7%
22.2%
13.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
NEC Nijmegen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that NEC Nijmegen's form might have worsened.
Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Excelsior's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for NEC Nijmegen than the current prediction. (+26.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for NEC Nijmegen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-11.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Excelsior, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
46.7%
13.3%
40%
NEC Nijmegen - Excelsior Predictions
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Nijmegen will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Excelsior will win (votes: 6 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Nijmegen: 21.5% – 71.9%.
12. Polster N. (G) 73. Bras G. 17. Nuytinck B. (C) 21. Storm T. 19. Tahaui A. 35. Monteiro J. 18. Geiger D. 77. Thomas A. 11. Willumsson W. T. 8. Hansen-Aaroen I. 10. Tadic D.
1. van Gassel S. (G) 3. Meissen R. 4. Widell C. (C) 14. Plug J. 2. da Silva Moreira E. 8. Yegoian I. 20. Hartjes L. 15. Janssen S. 21. Silva Timas I. 19. Garden D. 30. Thorsteinsson A.
Substitutes
99. Bischoff C. 9. Chery T. 1. Crettaz G. (G) 38. Geneste J. (G) 66. Kabar A. 34. Kers K. 20. Lebreton N. 3. Sandler P. 4. Schuurs P. 14. Sierhuis K.
16. Biai C. (G) 12. Bos K. 24. Cairo G. 9. Dominguez M. 23. Finey Y. 28. Groen N. 11. Jahanbakhsh A. 7. Sliti A. 18. Sulzbacher V. 22. Turay O. 6. van Vianen D.
Coaches
Schreuder D.
den Uil R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
4', Monteiro J. 🟨,
10', 1 - 0, Tahaui A. ⚽, Willumsson W. T. (A),
43', 1 - 1, Garden D. ⚽, Yegoian I. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Monteiro J. ↓, Schuurs P. ↑,
46', Nuytinck B. ↓, Sandler P. ↑,
46', Janssen S. ↓, Bos K. ↑,
52', Hartjes L. 🟨,
63', Geiger D. ↓, Lebreton N. ↑,
63', Hansen-Aaroen I. ↓, Kers K. ↑,
67', Thorsteinsson A. ↓, Sliti A. ↑,
67', Garden D. ↓, Groen N. ↑,
70', Meissen R. 🟨,
71', da Silva Moreira E. ↓, Sulzbacher V. ↑,
73', 1 - 2, Sulzbacher V. ⚽, Sliti A. (A),
81', Silva Timas I. ↓, Jahanbakhsh A. ↑,
87', Bras G. ↓, Bischoff C. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 2, Lebreton N. ⚽, Schuurs P. (A),
90+5', Sulzbacher V. 🟨,
Preview
Postponed due to european competitions.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nijmegen won 4.
Nijmegen has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Excelsior is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Nijmegen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Excelsior has had a series of away games.
In this match, Nijmegen is the team to beat.
There will not play in Nijmegen: Fonville D.
(Injury)
Ogawa K.
(Head Injury)
Ouaissa S.
(Muscle Injury)
Sandler P.
(Injury)
Schuurs P.
(Knee Injury)
There will not play in Excelsior: Bos K.
(Shoulder Injury)
Garden D.
(Injury)
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Nijmegen won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 35:23. (average 2.1:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Nijmegen won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 2.3:1.3).
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Polster N. (G) 
Bras G. 
Nuytinck B. (C) 
Storm T. 
Monteiro J. 
Geiger D. 
Willumsson W. T. 
Hansen-Aaroen I. 
Tadic D. 
Widell C. (C) 
Yegoian I. 
Chery T. 
Crettaz G. (G) 
Lebreton N. 
Biai C. (G) 
Bos K. 
Jahanbakhsh A. 
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