Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 17

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Braun R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 4
Albania	20:30	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	16:30	Disney+
Australia	06:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	20:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Belgium	20:30	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	16:30	Canal GOAT, SporTV
Bulgaria	21:30	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	14:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	16:30	Disney+
China	03:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	14:30	Disney+
Croatia	20:30	SportKlub 1
Czech Republic	20:30	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	20:30	See, Viaplay
Finland	21:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	20:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
Greece	21:30	Nova Sports 2
Hong Kong	03:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Iceland	19:30	Viaplay
India	01:00	Vision+
Indonesia	02:30	K-Vision
Japan	04:30	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:30	Arena Premium 4
Laos	02:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	20:30	TSN Malta 8
Mexico	13:30	Sky Sport
Netherlands	20:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	08:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	20:30	Viaplay
Pakistan	00:30	Tapmad
Peru	14:30	Disney+
Philippines	03:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	20:30	Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	19:30	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	21:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	22:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	22:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	20:30	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	20:30	Voyo
Slovenia	20:30	Sport TV3
South Korea	04:30	Coupang Play
Spain	20:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	20:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Thailand	02:30	beIN Connect, True Premier Football 4
Turkey	22:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	21:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
Uruguay	16:30	Disney+
Usa	14:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	15:30	Disney+
Vietnam	02:30	TV 360
International	19:30	Onefootball


	Hamburger SV		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.6	1.95	Watch
	3.4	3.6	2.05
	3.7	3.55	1.98	Watch
	3.83	3.73	2.02
	3.61	3.65	2.08	Watch
	3.6	3.4	1.95	Watch
	3.85	3.77	2.04	Watch
	3.5	3.6	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↑ (3.38)	3.61 ↓ (3.66)	2.02 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
26.1%

Draw
26.4%

Bayer Leverkusen
47.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28%

25.8%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

25.1%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	31%	47.6%

Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 8 - 19.5%). Bayer will win (votes: 20 - 48.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 31.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 33.5% – 64.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Bayer (2.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Bayer (1.30) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Hamburg (3.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Bayer (votes: 19 - 86.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 17. Omari W. 44. Vuskovic L. 8. Elfadli D. 18. Jatta B. 21. Remberg N. (C) 20. Vieira F. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 19. Downs D. 14. Philippe R.	28. Blaswich J. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 42. Culbreath M. 25. Palacios E. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. 11. Terrier M. 30. Maza I. 35. Kofane C.
Substitutes
45. Balde F. 7. Dompe J. 9. Glatzel R. 3. Katterbach N. 6. Lokonga A. S. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 49. Stange O. 12. Tangvik S. (G) 25. Torunarigha J.	6. Fernandez E. 7. Hofmann J. 36. Lomb N. (G) 15. Oermann T. 18. Omlin J. (G) 19. Poku E. 16. Tape A. 10. Tillman M.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Hjulmand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Jatta B. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
40', Garcia A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', Downs D. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
65', Omari W. ↓, Torunarigha J. ↑,
65', Philippe R. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
71', Terrier M. ↓, Tillman M. ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Kofane C. ⚽, Maza I. (A),
80', Culbreath M. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
80', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,
89', Maza I. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
90+5', Palacios E. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 1.

Hamburg has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bayer has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bayer might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Hamburg: Elfadli D. (Red Card) Omari W. (Knee Injury) Poulsen Y. (Ankle Injury) Suhonen A. (Illness)

There will not play in Bayer: Ben Seghir E. (International duty) Kofane C. (Rest) Maza I. (Rest) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Tape A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Glatzel R. (Thigh Injury) Soumahoro A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Schick P. (Ankle Injury) Tapsoba E. (Rest)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 10:24. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 0.9:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Bayer Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	16:12	4	13
11	Hamburger SV	7	3	0	4	6:16	-10	9

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.37%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
01.03.26	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
20.02.26	Mainz - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Hamburger SV - Union Berlin	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 LTWWT
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
28.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.02.26	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
17.02.18	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2
24.09.17	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	3:0
03.02.17	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0
10.09.16	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	3:1
13.03.16	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	1:0
17.10.15	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	0:0
04.04.15	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	4:0

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