Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 17

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Braun R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	Canal GOAT, SporTV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	TSN Malta 8
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Thailand	beIN Connect, True Premier Football 4
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Hamburger SV		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.6	1.95	Watch
	3.4	3.6	2.05
	3.7	3.55	1.98	Watch
	3.83	3.73	2.02
	3.61	3.65	2.08	Watch
	3.6	3.4	1.95	Watch
	3.85	3.77	2.04	Watch
	3.5	3.6	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↑ (3.38)	3.61 ↓ (3.66)	2.02 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
26.1%

Draw
26.4%

Bayer Leverkusen
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

25.8%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

25.1%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	31%	47.6%

Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 8 - 19.5%). Bayer will win (votes: 20 - 48.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 31.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 33.5% – 64.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Bayer (2.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Bayer (1.30) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Hamburg (3.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Bayer (votes: 19 - 86.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 17. Omari W. 44. Vuskovic L. 8. Elfadli D. 18. Jatta B. 21. Remberg N. (C) 20. Vieira F. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 19. Downs D. 14. Philippe R.	28. Blaswich J. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 42. Culbreath M. 25. Palacios E. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. 11. Terrier M. 30. Maza I. 35. Kofane C.
Substitutes
45. Balde F. 7. Dompe J. 9. Glatzel R. 3. Katterbach N. 6. Lokonga A. S. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 49. Stange O. 12. Tangvik S. (G) 25. Torunarigha J.	6. Fernandez E. 7. Hofmann J. 36. Lomb N. (G) 15. Oermann T. 18. Omlin J. (G) 19. Poku E. 16. Tape A. 10. Tillman M.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Hjulmand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Jatta B. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
40', Garcia A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', Downs D. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
65', Omari W. ↓, Torunarigha J. ↑,
65', Philippe R. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
71', Terrier M. ↓, Tillman M. ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Kofane C. ⚽, Maza I. (A),
80', Culbreath M. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
80', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,
89', Maza I. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
90+5', Palacios E. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 1.

Hamburg has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bayer has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bayer might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Hamburg: Elfadli D. (Red Card) Omari W. (Knee Injury) Poulsen Y. (Ankle Injury) Suhonen A. (Illness)

There will not play in Bayer: Ben Seghir E. (International duty) Kofane C. (Rest) Maza I. (Rest) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Tape A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Glatzel R. (Thigh Injury) Soumahoro A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Schick P. (Ankle Injury) Tapsoba E. (Rest)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 10:24. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 0.9:0.7).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.01%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
01.03.26	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
20.02.26	Mainz - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Hamburger SV - Union Berlin	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 LTWWT
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
28.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.02.26	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Olympiacos Piraeus - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
17.02.18	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2
24.09.17	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	3:0
03.02.17	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0
10.09.16	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	3:1
13.03.16	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	1:0
17.10.15	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	0:0
04.04.15	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	4:0

Upcoming Matches