Match Info

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Storks S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Australia	01:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	15:30	DAZN 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:30	Moja TV, Sportklub 7
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada
China	22:30	ZhiBo8
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 7
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Germany	15:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 5
Hungary	15:30	Net4+
India	20:00	Vision+
Indonesia	21:30	K-Vision, RCTI+
Laos	21:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	22:30	beIN Connect
Mexico	08:30	Sky Sport
Montenegro	15:30	Sportklub 7
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	15:30	MaxTV GO, Sportklub 7
Norway	15:30	Viaplay
Pakistan	19:30	Tapmad
Philippines	22:30	beIN Connect
Poland	15:30	Viaplay
Portugal	14:30	DAZN 6
South Korea	23:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	21:30	beIN Connect
Turkey	17:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, Tivibu Spor 3
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	21:30	K+, ON Football, ON Plus
International	14:30	Disney+, Onefootball


	Freiburg		Holstein Kiel

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.75	6.5	Watch
	1.46	4.75	6.25
	1.45	4.75	7	Watch
	1.42	5.22	7.8
	1.48	4.89	6.62	Watch
	1.44	4.8	6.5	Watch
	1.5	4.95	6.74	Watch
	1.45	4.75	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.41)	4.86 ↓ (4.99)	6.8 ↓ (7.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
66.1%

Draw
19.8%

Holstein Kiel
14.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68.2%

19.2%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.9%

18.2%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Holstein Kiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Freiburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71%	19.4%	9.7%

Freiburg - Holstein Kiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Freiburg will win (votes: 22 - 71%). Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 9.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 19.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Freiburg: 55% – 87%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 37. Rosenfelder M. 30. Gunter C. (C) 34. Rohl M. 8. Eggestein M. 42. Doan R. 18. Dinkci E. 32. Grifo V. 9. Holer L.	1. Weiner T. (G) 17. Becker T. (C) 26. Zec D. 3. Komenda M. 23. Rosenboom L. 37. Gigovic A. 22. Remberg N. 8. Porath F. 11. Bernhardsson A. 18. Machino S. 19. Harres P.
Substitutes
20. Adamu J. 38. Gregoritsch M. 27. Hofler N. 33. Makengo J. 21. Muller F. (G) 23. Muslija F. 6. Osterhage P. 26. Philipp M. 25. Sildillia K.	20. Arp J.-F. 21. Dahne T. (G) 14. Geschwill M. 10. Holtby L. 6. Ivezic M. 33. Javorcek D. 5. Johansson C. 16. Kelati A. Y. 24. Knudsen M.
Coaches
Schuster J.	Rapp M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Remberg N. (Own goal),
37', Harres P. 🟨,
38', 2 - 0, Gunter C. ⚽,
45+3', Gigovic A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
57', Gigovic A. ↓, Holtby L. ↑,
58', Kubler L. 🟨,
66', Machino S. ↓, Kelati A. Y. ↑,
66', Rosenboom L. ↓, Arp J.-F. ↑,
69', Holer L. ↓, Gregoritsch M. ↑,
69', Rohl M. ↓, Osterhage P. ↑,
74', 3 - 0, Grifo V. ⚽, Doan R. (A),
76', Dinkci E. ↓, Philipp M. ↑,
81', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Javorcek D. ↑,
83', Kubler L. ↓, Sildillia K. ↑,
83', Rosenfelder M. ↓, Makengo J. ↑,
85', 3 - 1, Harres P. ⚽, Becker T. (A),
90', 3 - 2, Harres P. ⚽, Porath F. (A),
90+5', Gregoritsch M. 🟨,
90+5', Javorcek D. 🟨,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Freiburg could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Freiburg is certain favorite.

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P. (Concussion) Kleine-Bekel C. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Muller F. (Head Injury)

There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Becker T. (Toe Injury) Johansson C. (Injury) Schulz M. (Muscle Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Freiburg won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
21.12.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	5:1 ✺
13.12.24	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	3:2 ✺
08.12.24	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	1:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.24	Arminia Bielefeld - Freiburg	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
30.11.24	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWTLW
- Holstein Kiel
Club Friendly
05.01.25	Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.12.24	Holstein Kiel - Augsburg	5:1 ✺
14.12.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Holstein Kiel	4:1 ✺
07.12.24	Holstein Kiel - RB Leipzig	0:2 ✺
29.11.24	St. Pauli - Holstein Kiel	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
31.10.18	Holstein Kiel - Freiburg	2:1

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