Match Info

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 15

Date: 21 December 2024, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Welz T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport App
Argentina	11:30	Disney+
Asia	—	TOD
Australia	01:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	15:30	DAZN 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:30	Sportklub 10
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada
Chile	11:30	Disney+
China	22:30	ZhiBo8
Colombia	09:30	Disney+
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 10
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	15:30	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports Extra 1
Hungary	15:30	Net4+
Iceland	14:30	Viaplay
India	20:00	Vision+
Indonesia	21:30	RCTI+
Japan	23:30	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 8
Laos	21:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	22:30	beIN Connect
Mexico	08:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Montenegro	15:30	Arena Sport 10, Sportklub 10
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	15:30	Sportklub 10
Norway	15:30	Viaplay
Pakistan	19:30	Tapmad
Peru	09:30	Disney+
Philippines	22:30	beIN Connect
Poland	15:30	Viaplay
South Korea	23:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 6
Thailand	21:30	beIN Connect
Turkey	17:30	beIN Connect
Uruguay	11:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	10:30	Disney+
Vietnam	21:30	ON Plus
International	14:30	Disney+, Onefootball


	Holstein Kiel		Augsburg

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.5	2.05	Watch
	3.5	3.3	2.1
	3.6	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.71	3.44	2.16
	3.68	3.44	2.14	Watch
	3.5	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.66	3.52	2.18	Watch
	3.6	3.4	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↑ (2.98)	3.41 ↓ (3.53)	2.13 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
26.7%

Draw
28.2%

Augsburg
45.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.2%

27.2%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

27.1%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Holstein Kiel's form might have worsened.

Augsburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Holstein Kiel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.8%	25.9%	59.3%

Holstein Kiel - Augsburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 12%). Augsburg will win (votes: 16 - 64%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 24%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Augsburg: 45.2% – 82.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weiner T. (C) 6. Ivezic M. 3. Komenda M. 14. Geschwill M. 23. Rosenboom L. 22. Remberg N. 37. Gigovic A. 8. Porath F. 18. Machino S. 19. Harres P. 11. Bernhardsson A.	22. Labrovic N. (G) 5. Matsima C. 23. Bauer M. 31. Schlotterbeck K. 11. Wolf M. 17. Jakic K. (C) 13. Giannoulis D. 20. Claude-Maurice A. 8. Rexhbecaj E. 9. Essende S. 21. Tietz P.
Substitutes
20. Arp J.-F. 21. Dahne T. (G) 10. Holtby L. 33. Javorcek D. 5. Johansson C. 16. Kelati A. Y. 24. Knudsen M. 9. Pichler B. 27. Puchacz T.	40. Banks N. 2. Gumny R. 25. Klein D. (G) 36. Komur M. 44. Koudossou H. 10. Maier A. 15. Mounie S. 19. Onyeka F. 16. Vargas R.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Thorup J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Claude-Maurice A. ⚽, Essende S. (A),
11', Schlotterbeck K. ↓, Koudossou H. ↑,
12', 1 - 1, Rosenboom L. ⚽, Machino S. (A),
29', Wolf M. 🟨,
31', Rapp M. 🟨,
32', 2 - 1, Harres P. ⚽, Machino S. (A),
35', 3 - 1, Harres P. ⚽, Bernhardsson A. (A),
39', 4 - 1, Machino S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rexhbecaj E. ↓, Onyeka F. ↑,
59', Essende S. ↓, Vargas R. ↑,
66', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Holtby L. ↑,
68', Giannoulis D. 🟨,
72', Jakic K. ↓, Maier A. ↑,
72', Wolf M. ↓, Mounie S. ↑,
73', Komenda M. ↓, Johansson C. ↑,
83', Vargas R. 🟨,
86', Mounie S. 🟨,
87', Porath F. ↓, Javorcek D. ↑,
87', Gigovic A. ↓, Knudsen M. ↑,
87', Harres P. ↓, Pichler B. ↑,
90+1', 5 - 1, Machino S. ⚽, Knudsen M. (A),

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 13).

Holstein Kiel has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Augsburg is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Augsburg will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Kleine-Bekel C. (Surgery)

There will not play in Augsburg: Gouweleeuw J. (Yellow Cards) Kabadayi Y. (Knee Injury) Oxford R. (Knee Injury) Pedersen M. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Becker T. (Toe Injury) Erras P. (Concussion)

There are questionable in Augsburg: Dahmen F. (Shoulder Injury) Jensen F. (Groin Injury)

Our prediction for today's Augsburg to win the game is with odds 2.33.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Holstein Kiel won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Including matches at home between the teams Holstein Kiel won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German Bundesliga
14.12.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Holstein Kiel	4:1 ✺
07.12.24	Holstein Kiel - RB Leipzig	0:2 ✺
29.11.24	St. Pauli - Holstein Kiel	3:1 ✺
24.11.24	Holstein Kiel - Mainz	0:3 ✺
09.11.24	Werder Bremen - Holstein Kiel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FC Augsburg
German Bundesliga
14.12.24	Augsburg - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
07.12.24	Eintracht Frankfurt - Augsburg	2:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
04.12.24	Karlsruher - Augsburg	2:3 penalties ✺
German Bundesliga
30.11.24	Augsburg - Bochum	1:0 ✺
22.11.24	Bayern Munich - Augsburg	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
06.02.19	Holstein Kiel - Augsburg	0:1

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