Match Info

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 24

Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Referee: Reichel T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Union Berlin		Holstein Kiel

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.6	4.1	5.5
				Watch
	1.57	4.37	6.2
				Watch
	1.57	4.2	5.5	Watch
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.55)	4.22 ↓ (4.45)	5.73 ↓ (5.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
60.6%

Draw
22.7%

Holstein Kiel
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

21.5%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.6%

20.9%

16.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Holstein Kiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52%	16%	32%

Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 13 - 52%). Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 8 - 32%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 32.4% – 71.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 4. Leite D. 18. Juranovic J. 8. Khedira R. (C) 29. Tousart L. 15. Rothe T. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 27. Ljubicic M. 16. Hollerbach B.	1. Weiner T. (G) 17. Becker T. (C) 26. Zec D. 3. Komenda M. 23. Rosenboom L. 22. Remberg N. 14. Geschwill M. 24. Knudsen M. 37. Gigovic A. 19. Harres P. 18. Machino S.
Substitutes
20. Benes L. 19. Haberer J. 23. Ilic A. 26. Roussillon J. 13. Schafer A. 37. Schwolow A. (G) 21. Skarke T. 28. Trimmel C. 10. Volland K.	20. Arp J.-F. 21. Dahne T. (G) 31. Engelhardt M. (G) 10. Holtby L. 6. Ivezic M. 33. Javorcek D. 16. Kelati A. Y. 15. Schulz M. 7. Skrzybski S.
Coaches
Baumgart S.	Rapp M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
40', Rothe T. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Gigovic A. ⚽, Machino S. (A),
45+3', Ljubicic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ljubicic M. ↓, Ilic A. ↑,
59', Gigovic A. ↓, Holtby L. ↑,
65', Rothe T. ↓, Roussillon J. ↑,
65', Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓, Benes L. ↑,
70', Becker T. ↓, Ivezic M. ↑,
70', Harres P. ↓, Skrzybski S. ↑,
75', Hollerbach B. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
75', Tousart L. ↓, Volland K. ↑,
77', Volland K. 🟨,
83', Geschwill M. ↓, Javorcek D. ↑,
83', Zec D. ↓, Schulz M. ↑,
90+5', Juranovic J. 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Union Berlin won 3.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Union Berlin could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Union Berlin is a favorite.

There will not play in Union Berlin: Kemlein A. (Foot Injury) Skov R. (Ankle Injury) Vogt K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Bernhardsson A. (Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Johansson C. (Knee Injury) Nekic I. (Muscle Injury) Pichler B. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Arp J.-F. (Head Injury) Tolkin J. (Thigh Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Union Berlin won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 19:12 (average 2.1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Union Berlin won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11:7 (average 2.2:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
22.02.25	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	6:0 ✺
15.02.25	Union Berlin - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:2 ✺
08.02.25	Hoffenheim - Union Berlin	0:4 ✺
01.02.25	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	0:0 ✺
26.01.25	St. Pauli - Union Berlin	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWTL
- Holstein Kiel
German Bundesliga
22.02.25	Holstein Kiel - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
16.02.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Holstein Kiel	3:1 ✺
09.02.25	Holstein Kiel - Bochum	2:2 ✺
01.02.25	Bayern Munich - Holstein Kiel	4:3 ✺
24.01.25	Wolfsburg - Holstein Kiel	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
05.01.25	Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel	1:2
German Bundesliga
20.10.24	Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin	0:2
Club Friendly
22.07.23	Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel	1:2
13.11.19	Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel	3:0
German 2 Bundesliga
01.03.19	Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin	0:2
25.09.18	Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel	2:0
Club Friendly
26.03.18	Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin	3:2

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