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Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel

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Match Info

  • GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 24
  • Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished
  • Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin) 🌤️ ...
  • Referee: Reichel T. (Ger)
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    Union Berlin Holstein Kiel
    Union Berlin Holstein Kiel
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.58 ↑
    (1.55)    		 4.22 ↓
    (4.45)    		 5.73 ↓
    (5.77)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Union Berlin
    60.6%    		Draw
    22.7%    		Holstein Kiel
    16.7%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    61.9% 21.5% 16.6%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    63.6% 20.9% 16.2%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
  • Holstein Kiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    52% 16% 32%

    Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Union Berlin will win (votes: 13 - 52%). Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 8 - 32%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 32.4% – 71.6%.
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. DenmarkRonnow F. (G)
      5. NetherlandsDoekhi D.
    14. AustriaQuerfeld L.
      4. PortugalLeite D.
    18. CroatiaJuranovic J.
      8. GermanyKhedira R. (C)
    29. FranceTousart L.
    15. GermanyRothe T.
    11. SouthJeong Woo-Yeong
    27. CroatiaLjubicic M.
    16. GermanyHollerbach B.
    		  1. GermanyWeiner T. (G)
    17. GermanyBecker T. (C)
    26. SloveniaZec D.
      3. GermanyKomenda M.
    23. GermanyRosenboom L.
    22. GermanyRemberg N.
    14. GermanyGeschwill M.
    24. NorwayKnudsen M.
    37. BosniaGigovic A.
    19. GermanyHarres P.
    18. JapanMachino S.
    Substitutes
    20. SlovakiaBenes L.
    19. GermanyHaberer J.
    23. SerbiaIlic A.
    26. GuadeloupeRoussillon J.
    13. HungarySchafer A.
    37. GermanySchwolow A. (G)
    21. GermanySkarke T.
    28. AustriaTrimmel C.
    10. GermanyVolland K.
    		20. GermanyArp J.-F.
    21. GermanyDahne T. (G)
    31. GermanyEngelhardt M. (G)
    10. GermanyHoltby L.
      6. SerbiaIvezic M.
    33. SlovakiaJavorcek D.
    16. GermanyKelati A. Y.
    15. GermanySchulz M.
      7. GermanySkrzybski S.
    Coaches
         GermanyBaumgart S.
    		     GermanyRapp M.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 1)
    • 40', Rothe T. 🟨,
    • 43', 0 - 1, Gigovic A. ⚽, Machino S. (A),
    • 45+3', Ljubicic M. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
    • 46', Ljubicic M. ↓, Ilic A. ↑,
    • 59', Gigovic A. ↓, Holtby L. ↑,
    • 65', Rothe T. ↓, Roussillon J. ↑,
    • 65', Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓, Benes L. ↑,
    • 70', Becker T. ↓, Ivezic M. ↑,
    • 70', Harres P. ↓, Skrzybski S. ↑,
    • 75', Hollerbach B. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
    • 75', Tousart L. ↓, Volland K. ↑,
    • 77', Volland K. 🟨,
    • 83', Geschwill M. ↓, Javorcek D. ↑,
    • 83', Zec D. ↓, Schulz M. ↑,
    • 90+5', Juranovic J. 🟨,

    Preview

  • In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).
  • Last 5 head-to-head matches Union Berlin won 3.
  • Two teams are in a poor body shape now.
  • Union Berlin could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
  • In this match Union Berlin is a favorite.
  • There will not play in Union Berlin: Kemlein A. (Foot Injury) Skov R. (Ankle Injury) Vogt K. (Knee Injury)
  • There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Bernhardsson A. (Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Johansson C. (Knee Injury) Nekic I. (Muscle Injury) Pichler B. (Muscle Injury)
  • There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Arp J.-F. (Head Injury) Tolkin J. (Thigh Injury)
  • Last 9 head-to-head matches Union Berlin won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 19:12 (average 2.1:1.3).
  • Including matches at home between the teams Union Berlin won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11:7 (average 2.2:1.4).

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Union Berlin
    German Bundesliga
    22.02.25 Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin 6:0 ✺
    15.02.25 Union Berlin - Borussia Mönchengladbach 1:2 ✺
    08.02.25 Hoffenheim - Union Berlin 0:4 ✺
    01.02.25 Union Berlin - RB Leipzig 0:0 ✺
    26.01.25 St. Pauli - Union Berlin 3:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2
    LLWTL
    - Holstein Kiel
    German Bundesliga
    22.02.25 Holstein Kiel - Bayer Leverkusen 0:2 ✺
    16.02.25 Eintracht Frankfurt - Holstein Kiel 3:1 ✺
    09.02.25 Holstein Kiel - Bochum 2:2 ✺
    01.02.25 Bayern Munich - Holstein Kiel 4:3 ✺
    24.01.25 Wolfsburg - Holstein Kiel 2:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4
    LLTLT
    Latest Head to Head
    Club Friendly
    05.01.25 Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel 1:2
    German Bundesliga
    20.10.24 Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin 0:2
    Club Friendly
    22.07.23 Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel 1:2
    13.11.19 Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel 3:0
    German 2 Bundesliga
    01.03.19 Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin 0:2
    25.09.18 Union Berlin - Holstein Kiel 2:0
    Club Friendly
    26.03.18 Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin 3:2
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Union Berlin
    German Bundesliga
    01.11.26 Union Berlin - Köln ✺
    - Holstein Kiel
    German 2 Bundesliga
    01.11.26 Greuther Fürth - Holstein Kiel ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    28.10.26 Holstein Kiel - Hoffenheim ✺

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