Match Info

J3 League - Round 16

Date: 15 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Toho (Fukushima)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Fukushima United		Tochigi

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.1	2.05
	3.65	3.2	1.9	Watch
	3.54	3.35	2.06
				Watch
	3.3	2.9	2.1
	3.43	3.2	2.02	Watch
	3.65	3.2	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↑ (2.85)	3.16 ↑ (3.11)	2.01 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fukushima United
26.1%

Draw
28.7%

Tochigi
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

29%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

29.4%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fukushima United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fukushima United's form might have worsened.

Tochigi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tochigi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fukushima United than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fukushima United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tochigi than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tochigi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Fukushima United - Tochigi Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tochigi (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ueda T. (G) 55. Shibata T. 2. Yamada M. 25. Toma H. 3. Matsunagane Y. 7. Harigaya T. 20. Jojo K. 6. Uehata U. 14. Nakamura T. 18. Yajima K. 10. Mori K.	1. Kawata S. (G) 3. Omori H. 2. Hiramatsu W. 25. Iwasaki H. 5. Mori R. 77. Fujiwara K. 11. Aoshima T. 18. Kawana R. 81. Nakano K. 10. Igarashi T. 32. Ota R.
Substitutes
23. Anzai T. 38. Awano K. 40. Higuchi H. 30. Kano K. 27. Nozue S. 9. Shimizu K. 28. Suzu N. 22. Yoshimaru K. (G) 37. Yui K.	4. Sato S. 19. Shoji H. 9. Sugawara R. 22. Takahashi H. 40. Takashima S. 27. Tanno K. (G) 39. Yagi K. 29. Yano K. 47. Yoshino H.
Coaches
Terada S.	Kobayashi S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Jojo K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Nakamura T. ↓, Shimizu K. ↑,
61', Mori R. ↓, Takahashi H. ↑,
61', Kawana R. ↓, Shoji H. ↑,
61', Nakano K. ↓, Yagi K. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Takahashi H. ⚽, Igarashi T. (A),
73', Shibata T. ↓, Suzu N. ↑,
73', Yajima K. ↓, Higuchi H. ↑,
74', Yagi K. 🟨,
75', 2 - 1, Shimizu K. ⚽, Mori K. (A),
80', Aoshima T. ↓, Takashima S. ↑,
80', Igarashi T. ↓, Yano K. ↑,
84', Mori K. ↓, Nozue S. ↑,
88', Harigaya T. ↓, Yui K. ↑,
90', 2 - 2, Ota R. ⚽, Fujiwara K. (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 10).

Fukushima United is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tochigi has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tochigi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tochigi could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Fukushima United - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 31.66%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fukushima United
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Fukushima United	4:3 ✺
Japan J3 League
07.06.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Fukushima United	1:2 ✺
01.06.25	Fukushima United - Sagamihara	3:3 ✺
17.05.25	Kagoshima United - Fukushima United	5:0 ✺
06.05.25	Fukushima United - Thespakusatsu Gunma	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWTLL
- Tochigi SC
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Tokyo Verdy - Tochigi	3:1 ✺
Japan J3 League
07.06.25	Tochigi - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:1 ✺
31.05.25	Tochigi - Kamatamare Sanuki	1:0 ✺
17.05.25	Nara Club - Tochigi	0:0 ✺
06.05.25	Tochigi - Nagano Parceiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLWTW

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