Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 22

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Cegeka Arena (Genk)

Referee: Verboomen N. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	Sporza, Sporza
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Genk		Cercle Brugge

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.6	3.8	Watch
	1.88	3.7	3.9
	1.98	3.55	3.65	Watch
	1.99	3.62	3.99
	1.98	3.54	3.77
	1.91	3.4	3.6
	1.93	3.72	4.13	Watch
	1.94	3.5	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.81)	3.58 ↓ (3.79)	3.83 ↓ (3.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genk
48.8%

Draw
26.5%

Cercle Brugge
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

24.7%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51%

24.4%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Cercle Brugge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genk than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cercle Brugge than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	7.1%	28.6%

Genk - Cercle Brugge Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Genk will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Cercle Brugge will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genk: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Genk (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Cercle Brugge (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Genk (2.74) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Genk (votes: 3 - 60%). Cercle Brugge (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Lawal T. (G) 77. El Ouahdi Z. 3. Sadick M. 6. Smets M. 19. Medina Y. 38. Heymans D. 8. Heynen B. (C) 10. Ito J. 20. Karetsas K. 14. Sor Y. 23. Bibout A.	1. Warleson (G) 15. Magnee G. 66. Ravych C. 3. Utkus E. 20. Nazinho 28. van der Bruggen H. (C) 6. Agyekum L. 17. Adewumi O. 37. Diop E. 18. Gerkens P. 9. Ngoura S.
Substitutes
21. Bangoura I. 28. Brughmans L. (G) 99. Erabi J. 44. Kongolo J. 29. Mirisola R. 27. Nkuba K. 9. Oh Hyeon-Gyu 34. Palacios A. 24. Sattlberger N. 7. Steuckers J. 1. Van Crombrugge H. (G)	21. Delanghe M. (G) 27. De Wilde N. 19. Diaby I. 2. Diakite I. 10. Diakite O. 8. Erick Nunes 5. Kakou E. 12. Valy K. 13. Vanzeir D.
Coaches
Hayen N.	Cinel O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Sor Y. ⚽, Karetsas K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Ngoura S. ↓, Vanzeir D. ↑,
61', Diop E. ↓, Diaby I. ↑,
67', Heymans D. ↓, Sattlberger N. ↑,
67', Karetsas K. ↓, Steuckers J. ↑,
70', Ito J. 🟨,
79', Ito J. ↓, Mirisola R. ↑,
79', Bibout A. ↓, Bangoura I. ↑,
79', van der Bruggen H. ↓, Erick Nunes ↑,
79', Agyekum L. ↓, Diakite O. ↑,
90+2', Sor Y. ↓, Palacios A. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 1, Gerkens P. ⚽, Diaby I. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Conference League Group: ) and 15 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Genk won 2.

Recent form of Genk has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Cercle Brugge has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Genk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Genk is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Genk: Adedeji-Sternberg N. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Cercle Brugge: Valy K. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Genk won 11 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 36:23. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Genk won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 1.3:0.9).

Outrights of Belgian Jupiler Pro League for now

Genk: 4.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Genk	7	2	3	2	13:12	1	9
17	Cercle Brugge KSV	8	0	3	5	9:16	-7	3

Last Results with these Odds

Genk - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 51.55%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Genk
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Utrecht - Genk	0:2 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
17.01.26	Zulte Waregem - Genk	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.01.26	Genk - Diósgyőri	3:4 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
26.12.25	Genk - Club Brugge	3:5 ✺
19.12.25	Charleroi - Genk	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLLLT
- Cercle Brugge
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
17.01.26	Westerlo - Cercle Brugge	0:2 ✺
26.12.25	Cercle Brugge - Saint-Gilloise	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Cercle Brugge	0:2 ✺
13.12.25	Cercle Brugge - KV Mechelen	2:3 ✺
06.12.25	Cercle Brugge - Standard Liège	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
19.10.25	Cercle Brugge - Genk	2:2
08.02.25	Genk - Cercle Brugge	2:1
14.09.24	Cercle Brugge - Genk	2:3
04.05.24	Cercle Brugge - Genk	4:1
13.04.24	Genk - Cercle Brugge	1:1
20.01.24	Genk - Cercle Brugge	1:1
13.08.23	Cercle Brugge - Genk	0:1

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