The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Grêmio 27%
Draw 28.7%
Vasco da Gama 44.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
46%
27.9%
26.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
47.6%
28.9%
25.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.
Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vasco da Gama's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+20.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-19.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vasco da Gama, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
33.3%
66.7%
0%
Grêmio - Vasco da Gama Predictions
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH 0 - Grêmio (2.20) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
DC - Grêmio (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
O/U 2.5 - under (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 3 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (G) 27. Diego Caito 82. Wallace 4. Walter Kannemann (C) 54. Pedro Gabriel 8. Noriega E. 11. Tete 20. Villasanti M. 10. Krovinovic F. 77. Cabral J. 95. Carlos Vinicius
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 46. Cuesta C. 30. Robert Renan 66. Cuiabano 5. Sosa S. 28. Adson 3. Tche Tche 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 11. Gomez A. 9. Colidio F.
Substitutes
50. Bernardo Zortea 22. Braithwaite M. 15. Danilo Barbosa 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 6. Gustavo Martins 18. Joao Pedro 14. Marcos Rocha 30. Matheus Nascimento 5. Nardoni J. 65. Riquelme 3. Wagner Leonardo
19. Bruno Duarte 88. Cauan Barros 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 18. Hinestroza M. 8. Jair 22. Lescano A. 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 17. Moreira N. 83. Ramon Rique 2. Rodriguez J.
Coaches
Castro L.
Emanuel P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Pedro Gabriel 🟨,
26', Tche Tche 🟨,
32', Wallace 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Villasanti M. ⚽,
45+2', Cuiabano 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
53', Robert Renan 🟨,
55', Adson ↓, Bruno Duarte ↑,
55', Paulo Henrique ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
58', Diego Caito 🟨,
61', Cabral J. ↓, Nardoni J. ↑,
71', Tete ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
73', Tche Tche ↓, Lescano A. ↑,
73', Cuesta C. ↓, Jair ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Thiago Mendes ⚽,
79', Cuiabano ↓, Lucas Piton ↑,
80', 1 - 2, Colidio F. ⚽, Bruno Duarte (A),
86', Walter Kannemann ↓, Matheus Nascimento ↑,
Preview
The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 15 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B)
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2.
In recent matches, Grêmio has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Vasco is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in Grêmio: Amuzu F.
(Inactive)
Cabral J.
(Muscle Injury)
Dodi
(Knee Injury)
Pavon C.
(Yellow Cards)
There will not play in Vasco: Brenner
(Knee Injury)
Cuiabano
(Muscle Injury)
Jair
(Muscle Injury)
Mateus Carvalho
(Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Vasco: Adson
(Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:12. (average 1.3:0.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:3. (average 1.9:0.3).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
14
Vasco
29
9
8
12
36:42
-6
35
18
Gremio
29
7
9
13
31:39
-8
30
Last Results with these Odds
Grêmio - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 45.99%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.
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Weverton (G) 
Noriega E. 
Villasanti M. 
Krovinovic F. 
Cabral J. 
Cuesta C. 
Sosa S. 
Braithwaite M. 
Moreira N. 
Rodriguez J. 
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