Match Info

ECUADOR: LIGA PRO - FIRST STAGE - ROUND 11

Date: 21 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt (Guayaquil)

Referee: Zambrano R. (Ecu)


	Guayaquil City		El Nacional

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	2.3	Watch
	2.85	3.1	2.2
	3	3.4	2.2
	2.96	3.48	2.39
	3	3.2	2.2
	3.13	3.5	2.2	Watch
	3	3.3	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.83)	3.34 ↑ (3.3)	2.25 ↓ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guayaquil City
30.9%

Draw
27.8%

El Nacional
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

27.9%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

26.7%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guayaquil City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

The ML Model estimate for El Nacional aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Guayaquil City - El Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Guayaquil City will win (votes: 3 - 50%). El Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 5).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Guayaquil City won 2.

Guayaquil City is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

El Nacional is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

El Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

El Nacional will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Guayaquil City won 7 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 30-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Guayaquil City won 7 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 23-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guayaquil City FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
14.05.23	Independiente del Valle - Guayaquil City	4:0 ✺
06.05.23	Guayaquil City - Libertad Loja	1:1 ✺
28.04.23	SD Aucas - Guayaquil City	1:0 ✺
21.04.23	Guayaquil City - Delfín	2:1 ✺
15.04.23	Deportivo Cuenca - Guayaquil City	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLWL
- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.05.23	El Nacional - Orense	3:1 ✺
07.05.23	Mushuc Runa - El Nacional	0:1 ✺
30.04.23	Delfín - El Nacional	2:0 ✺
23.04.23	El Nacional - Libertad Loja	4:2 ✺
17.04.23	Emelec - El Nacional	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
28.11.20	El Nacional - Guayaquil City	Guayaquil City awarded
30.09.20	Guayaquil City - El Nacional	2:1
19.10.19	Guayaquil City - El Nacional	0:1
11.05.19	El Nacional - Guayaquil City	2:1
12.11.18	Guayaquil City - El Nacional	1:0
20.08.18	El Nacional - Guayaquil City	1:1
09.06.18	Guayaquil City - El Nacional	2:1

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