Match Info

Suomen Cup - Semi-finals

Date: 1 July 2026, Wednesday

Location: Bolt Arena (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+


	HJK		Ilves

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.60	3.90	4.20
	1.6	4.05	4.15
	1.69	4.37	4.51
	1.31	5.55	8.52	Watch
	1.67	4.3	4.45
	1.67	4.25	4.29	Watch
	1.6	3.95	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.7)	4.34 ↑ (4.1)	4.89 ↑ (4.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HJK
59.1%

Draw
21.7%

Ilves
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

22.8%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

22.4%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HJK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HJK than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

HJK - Ilves Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. HJK (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.45) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - HJK (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: HJK will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. HJK (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ost J. (G) 9. Borchers M. 3. Cissokho T. 15. Kallinen J. 10. Lingman L. 22. Moller L. 14. Montano L. 20. Pukki T. 4. Ring A. (C) 6. Tikkanen V. 28. Ylitolva M.	1. Virtanen O. (C) 19. Bamba G. 9. Hytonen T. 30. Kanga J. 28. Kilo J. 24. Kumpu V. 16. Miettunen T. 14. Popovitch A. 6. Raap Y. 3. Rale M. 13. Wallius K.
Substitutes
7. Cicale A. 32. Gueye M. 12. Haapanen M. (G) 17. Kirilov M. 26. Lappalainen L. 24. Levealahti E. 2. Lyons-Foster B. 8. Mentu P. 13. Simojoki K.	12. Krkalic F. (G) 22. Multala O. 4. Pettersson O. 10. Riski Ro. 20. Tiitinen O. 5. Vaisanen S. 7. Veteli J.
Coaches
Rantanen J.	Lehtonen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Moller L. ⚽, Ring A. (A),
34', Tikkanen V. 🟥,
36', Moller L. ↓, Lyons-Foster B. ↑,
39', Bamba G. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kallinen J. ↓, Gueye M. ↑,
46', Raap Y. ↓, Veteli J. ↑,
46', Kilo J. ↓, Pettersson O. ↑,
62', Pukki T. ↓, Cicale A. ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Hytonen T. ⚽, Rale M. (A),
75', Montano L. 🟨,
76', Lingman L. ↓, Lappalainen L. ↑,
76', Ring A. ↓, Mentu P. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Cicale A. ⚽,
83', Kumpu V. ↓, Riski Ro. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HJK won 1.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Recently, Ilves has had a series of home games.

In this match, HJK is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HJK won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 39:25. (average 2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, HJK won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 25:11. (average 2.1:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

HJK - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.92%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.06.26	HJK - KuPS Kuopio	0:4 ✺
23.06.26	IFK Mariehamn - HJK	0:4 ✺
17.06.26	HJK - Inter Turku	3:3 ✺
13.06.26	FF Jaro - HJK	2:5 ✺
Finnish Cup
09.06.26	Honka - HJK	1:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWTWW
- FC Ilves
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.06.26	Ilves - SJK	2:2 ✺
23.06.26	KuPS Kuopio - Ilves	4:3 ✺
17.06.26	Ilves - FF Jaro	5:0 ✺
13.06.26	Ilves - TPS	1:0 ✺
Finnish Cup
10.06.26	Ilves - Lahti	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
16.05.26	HJK - Ilves	2:2
30.10.25	Ilves - HJK	3:1
29.09.25	HJK - Ilves	2:2
11.08.25	HJK - Ilves	5:1
05.04.25	Ilves - HJK	3:2
28.09.24	HJK - Ilves	0:1
06.07.24	Ilves - HJK	3:0

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