Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 24

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 3
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 3
Pakistan	Tapmad
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Hamburger SV		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	3.8	4	1.85	Watch
	3.95	3.95	1.85	Watch
	4.07	4.07	1.87
	3.78	3.89	1.9	Watch
	3.7	3.75	1.85	Watch
	3.88	4.09	1.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.86 ↑ (3.23)	3.96 ↑ (3.67)	1.87 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
24.7%

Draw
24.1%

RB Leipzig
51.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

25.8%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

26%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting RB Leipzig's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for RB Leipzig, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	13.3%	78.3%

Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Hamburg (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +1.5 - Hamburg (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (47 of 59 users predict this - 79.66%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.39% – 89.93%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RB Leipzig will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 3 - 18.8%). RB Leipzig (votes: 13 - 81.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. (C) 44. Vuskovic L. 25. Torunarigha J. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 20. Vieira F. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 19. Downs D. 27. Otele P.	26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 10. Gruda B. 13. Seiwald N. 14. Baumgartner C. 49. Diomande Y. 40. Romulo Cardoso 7. Nusa A.
Substitutes
7. Dompe J. 8. Elfadli D. 9. Glatzel R. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 6. Lokonga A. S. 17. Omari W. 14. Philippe R. 15. Poulsen Y. 12. Tangvik S. (G)	9. Bakayoko J. 6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 11. Harder C. 39. Henrichs B. 16. Klostermann L. 25. Zingerle L. (G)
Coaches
Polzin M.	Werner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', Capaldo N. ↓, Omari W. ↑,
22', 1 - 0, Vieira F. ⚽, Mikelbrencis W. (A),
31', Orban W. 🟨,
36', 1 - 1, Romulo Cardoso ⚽, Baku R. (A),
45+3', Otele P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', 1 - 2, Diomande Y. ⚽, Romulo Cardoso (A),
62', Romulo Cardoso (Penalty Awarded),
63', Romulo Cardoso 🟨,
67', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,
67', Otele P. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
67', Downs D. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
72', Nusa A. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
72', Gruda B. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
81', Muheim M. 🟨,
82', Poulsen Y. 🟨,
87', Vieira F. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
90+1', Diomande Y. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
90+5', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0.

Hamburg is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

RB Leipzig has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

RB Leipzig may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

RB Leipzig might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Hamburg: Gronbaek A. (Thigh Injury) Lokonga A. S. (Injury) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Injury)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Gulacsi P. (Knee Injury) Nedeljkovic K. (Back Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Sani S. (Ankle Injury) Schlager X. (Groin Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:16. (average 0.9:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:9. (average 0.3:3).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

RB Leipzig: 2.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9:5	4	6
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
20.02.26	Mainz - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Hamburger SV - Union Berlin	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
23.01.26	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 TWWTT
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
21.02.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg	2:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
11.02.26	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
08.02.26	Köln - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	RB Leipzig - Mainz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
18.10.25	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	2:1
German DFB Pokal
18.10.22	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	4:0
23.04.19	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	1:3
German Bundesliga
27.01.18	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	1:1
08.09.17	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	0:2
11.02.17	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	0:3
17.09.16	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	0:4

Upcoming Matches