Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 24

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	19:30	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	15:30	Disney+
Armenia	22:30	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Australia	05:30	beIN Connect
Austria	19:30	DAZN
Bulgaria	20:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	13:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
China	02:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	19:30	SportKlub 1
Czech Republic	19:30	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	19:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	20:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Georgia	22:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	19:30	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	20:30	Nova Sports 2
Hong Kong	02:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	19:30	Arena 4
Iceland	18:30	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	00:00	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	01:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	20:30	Sport 3
Japan	03:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	01:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	02:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	19:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	12:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	02:30	Premier Sports 5
Mozambique	20:30	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	19:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	07:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	19:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	19:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 3
Pakistan	23:30	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	04:30	TVWan Sports
Peru	13:30	Disney+
Philippines	02:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	19:30	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	18:30	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	20:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	21:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	21:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	19:30	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	02:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	19:30	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
Slovenia	19:30	Sport TV1
South Korea	03:30	Coupang Play
Spain	19:30	DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Sweden	19:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	19:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	21:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	20:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	18:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	15:30	Disney+
Usa	13:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	14:30	Disney+
Vietnam	01:30	TV 360
International	18:30	Onefootball


	Hamburger SV		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	3.8	4	1.85	Watch
	3.95	3.95	1.85	Watch
	4.07	4.07	1.87
	3.78	3.89	1.9	Watch
	3.7	3.75	1.85	Watch
	3.88	4.09	1.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.86 ↑ (3.23)	3.96 ↑ (3.67)	1.87 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
24.7%

Draw
24.1%

RB Leipzig
51.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.2%

25.8%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

26%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting RB Leipzig's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for RB Leipzig, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	13.3%	78.3%

Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Hamburg (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +1.5 - Hamburg (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (47 of 59 users predict this - 79.66%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.39% – 89.93%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RB Leipzig will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 3 - 18.8%). RB Leipzig (votes: 13 - 81.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. (C) 44. Vuskovic L. 25. Torunarigha J. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 20. Vieira F. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 19. Downs D. 27. Otele P.	26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 10. Gruda B. 13. Seiwald N. 14. Baumgartner C. 49. Diomande Y. 40. Romulo Cardoso 7. Nusa A.
Substitutes
7. Dompe J. 8. Elfadli D. 9. Glatzel R. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 6. Lokonga A. S. 17. Omari W. 14. Philippe R. 15. Poulsen Y. 12. Tangvik S. (G)	9. Bakayoko J. 6. Banzuzi E. 5. Bitshiabu E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 11. Harder C. 39. Henrichs B. 16. Klostermann L. 25. Zingerle L. (G)
Coaches
Polzin M.	Werner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', Capaldo N. ↓, Omari W. ↑,
22', 1 - 0, Vieira F. ⚽, Mikelbrencis W. (A),
31', Orban W. 🟨,
36', 1 - 1, Romulo Cardoso ⚽, Baku R. (A),
45+3', Otele P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', 1 - 2, Diomande Y. ⚽, Romulo Cardoso (A),
62', Romulo Cardoso (Penalty Awarded),
63', Romulo Cardoso 🟨,
67', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,
67', Otele P. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
67', Downs D. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
72', Nusa A. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
72', Gruda B. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
81', Muheim M. 🟨,
82', Poulsen Y. 🟨,
87', Vieira F. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
90+1', Diomande Y. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
90+5', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0.

Hamburg is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

RB Leipzig has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

RB Leipzig may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

RB Leipzig might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Hamburg: Gronbaek A. (Thigh Injury) Lokonga A. S. (Injury) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Injury)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Gulacsi P. (Knee Injury) Nedeljkovic K. (Back Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Sani S. (Ankle Injury) Schlager X. (Groin Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:16. (average 0.9:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:9. (average 0.3:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	RB Leipzig	7	4	0	3	20:11	9	12
11	Hamburger SV	7	3	0	4	6:16	-10	9

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

RB Leipzig: 2.13%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
20.02.26	Mainz - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Hamburger SV - Union Berlin	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
23.01.26	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 TWWTT
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
21.02.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	RB Leipzig - Wolfsburg	2:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
11.02.26	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
08.02.26	Köln - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	RB Leipzig - Mainz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
18.10.25	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	2:1
German DFB Pokal
18.10.22	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	4:0
23.04.19	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	1:3
German Bundesliga
27.01.18	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	1:1
08.09.17	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	0:2
11.02.17	RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV	0:3
17.09.16	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	0:4

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