Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 22

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hamburger SV		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.25	3.2	Watch
	2.32	3.15	3.25	Watch
	2.4	3.22	3.36
	2.48	3.17	3.05	Watch
	2.25	3	3.1	Watch
	2.35	3.33	3.28	Watch
	2.36	3.14	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.49)	3.18 ↓ (3.23)	3.21 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
40.5%

Draw
29.9%

Union Berlin
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

29.4%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

29.2%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	53.6%	21.4%

Hamburger SV - Union Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 7 - 25.9%). Union Berlin will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 36.9% – 74.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Union Berlin (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Hamburg (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hamburg (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Union Berlin (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. 44. Vuskovic L. 25. Torunarigha J. 18. Jatta B. 20. Vieira F. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 9. Glatzel R. 27. Otele P.	1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 34. Nsoki S. 28. Trimmel C. 8. Khedira R. 6. Kemlein A. 39. Kohn D. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 23. Ilic A. 10. Ansah I.
Substitutes
7. Dompe J. 8. Elfadli D. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 39. Megeed O. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 14. Philippe R. 15. Poulsen Y. 49. Stange O. 12. Tangvik S. (G)	9. Burcu L. 7. Burke O. 19. Haberer J. 33. Kral A. 3. Markgraf A. 17. Preu D. 31. Raab M. (G) 13. Schafer A. 21. Skarke T.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Baumgart S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Querfeld L. (Penalty Awarded),
35', 1 - 1, Konigsdorffer R. ⚽, Glatzel R. (A),
45+2', 2 - 1, Capaldo N. ⚽, Jatta B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Vuskovic L. 🟨,
61', Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
61', Ansah I. ↓, Burcu L. ↑,
64', Capaldo N. 🟨,
72', Glatzel R. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
72', Otele P. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
74', Jatta B. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
75', Khedira R. ↓, Kral A. ↑,
82', 3 - 1, Konigsdorffer R. ⚽, Gocholeishvili G. (A),
84', Kemlein A. ↓, Schafer A. ↑,
84', Nsoki S. ↓, Burke O. ↑,
87', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
87', Capaldo N. ↓, Elfadli D. ↑,
89', 3 - 2, Ilic A. ⚽, Burke O. (A),
90+3', Polzin M. 🟨,
90+7', Mikelbrencis W. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 9).

Recent performances by Hamburg have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Union Berlin has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Union Berlin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Hamburg: Gronbaek A. (Thigh Injury) Lokonga A. S. (Injury) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Injury)

There will not play in Union Berlin: Juranovic J. (Injury) Leite D. (Muscle Injury) Rothe T. (Injury) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Balde F. (Injury) Dompe J. (Coach's decision)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Hamburg won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Union Berlin: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4:17	-13	1

Last Results with these Odds

Hamburger SV - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 38.16%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Union Berlin - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 32.43%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
07.02.26	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
23.01.26	St. Pauli - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WTTTL
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
06.02.26	Union Berlin - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Hoffenheim - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
24.01.26	Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund	0:3 ✺
18.01.26	Stuttgart - Union Berlin	1:1 ✺
15.01.26	Augsburg - Union Berlin	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
28.09.25	Union Berlin - Hamburger SV	0:0
German 2 Bundesliga
28.04.19	Union Berlin - Hamburger SV	2:0
26.11.18	Hamburger SV - Union Berlin	2:2

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