Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 13

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, Startimes Am'mobi, StarTimes App, Startimes Ganza, Startimes Sports Arena, Startimes Sports Focus, Startimes Sports Life, Startimes Sports Premium, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Brazil	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN 3, ESPN 5
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Sky Sport Max
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Sky Sport
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 9
Slovakia	Sport TV2, Voyo
South-america	ESPN 5 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Hamburger SV		Werder Bremen

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.4	2.9	Watch
	2.38	3.45	2.92	Watch
	2.42	3.6	3.02
	2.36	3.52	2.94	Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.9	Watch
	2.45	3.6	3.04	Watch
	2.33	3.6	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.29)	3.5 ↓ (3.74)	2.95 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
40.3%

Draw
27.3%

Werder Bremen
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

25.4%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

26.7%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Werder Bremen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.4%	34.8%	34.8%

Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%). Werder will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.3% – 56.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Werder (1.79) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Werder (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. (C) 44. Vuskovic L. 25. Torunarigha J. 18. Jatta B. 6. Lokonga A. S. 21. Remberg N. 22. Soumahoro A. 20. Vieira F. 14. Philippe R. 7. Dompe J.	30. Backhaus M. (G) 3. Sugawara Y. 5. Pieper A. 31. Coulibaly K. 32. Friedl M. (C) 14. Lynen S. 6. Stage J. 18. Puertas C. 20. Schmid R. 17. Grull M. 9. Topp K.
Substitutes
45. Balde F. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 23. Meffert J. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 28. Muheim M. 26. Peretz D. (G) 15. Poulsen Y. 13. Ramos G.	28. Alvero S. 10. Bittencourt L. 44. Boniface V. 24. Covic P. 13. Hein K. (G) 22. Malatini J. 7. Mbangula S. 11. Njinmah J. 23. Schmidt I.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Steffen H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', Stage J. 🟨,
45', 0 - 1, Stage J. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
56', Vuskovic L. 🟨,
59', Soumahoro A. ↓, Muheim M. ↑,
59', Philippe R. ↓, Konigsdorffer R. ↑,
62', Topp K. 🟨,
63', 1 - 1, Lokonga A. S. ⚽,
68', Topp K. ↓, Njinmah J. ↑,
69', Grull M. 🟨,
74', Friedl M. 🟨,
75', 2 - 1, Vuskovic L. ⚽, Vieira F. (A),
78', 2 - 2, Njinmah J. ⚽, Schmid R. (A),
79', Puertas C. ↓, Boniface V. ↑,
82', Vieira F. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
82', Jatta B. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
84', 3 - 2, Poulsen Y. ⚽, Muheim M. (A),
87', Grull M. ↓, Mbangula S. ↑,
90+2', Dompe J. ↓, Balde F. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 1.

Hamburg is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Werder has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Werder may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Hamburg: Glatzel R. (Injury) Omari W. (Knee Injury) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Red Card)

There will not play in Werder: Agu F. (Ankle Injury) Stark N. (Red Card) Weiser M. (Knee Injury) Wober M. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Elfadli D. (Groin Injury) Poulsen Y. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Werder: Alvero S. (Injury) Bittencourt L. (Injury) Deman O. (Ankle Injury) Malatini J. (Thigh Injury) Mbangula S. (Injury) Stage J. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:21. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.5:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Hamburger SV - Holstein Kiel	1:2 penalties ✺
German Bundesliga
30.11.25	Hamburger SV - Stuttgart	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Augsburg - Hamburger SV	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Hamburger SV - Borussia Dortmund	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Köln - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLTL
- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
29.11.25	Werder Bremen - Köln	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	RB Leipzig - Werder Bremen	2:0 ✺
07.11.25	Werder Bremen - Wolfsburg	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Mainz - Werder Bremen	1:1 ✺
24.10.25	Werder Bremen - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
27.02.22	Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen	2:3
18.09.21	Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV	0:2
German Bundesliga
24.02.18	Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV	1:0
30.09.17	Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen	0:0
16.04.17	Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV	2:1
26.11.16	Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen	2:2
22.04.16	Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen	2:1

Upcoming Matches