Match Info

League Two - Round 38

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Priestfield Stadium (Gillingham)

Referee: Heaslip E. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Gillingham		Swindon Town

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.25	2.45
	2.95	3.4	2.25
	2.72	3.35	2.48
	2.76	3.51	2.52
	2.84	3.4	2.36	Watch
	2.75	3.25	2.4
	2.76	3.26	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.5)	3.35 ↑ (3.15)	2.42 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gillingham
33.6%

Draw
27.9%

Swindon Town
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

28.8%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

28.2%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	0%	88.9%

Gillingham - Swindon Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Gillingham will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Swindon will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Swindon: 68.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Swindon (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Gillingham (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Gillingham (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Swindon (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Turner J. (G) 30. Gale S. 39. Beckles O. 22. Ogie S. 2. Hutton R. 24. Waldock H. 8. Little A. (C) 3. Clark M. 23. Dack B. 9. Andrews J. 38. Hale R.	1. Ripley C. (G) 5. Wright W. (C) 22. Knight-Lebel J. 17. Tafazolli R. 26. Batty J. 44. Oldaker D. 7. Nichols T. 18. Kilkenny G. 31. Bodin B. 23. Drinan A. 30. Hoilett J.
Substitutes
7. McCleary G. 1. Morris G. (G) 12. Palmer-Houlden S. 11. Rowe A. 5. Smith A. 19. Vokes S. 10. Williams J.	25. Borland A. 24. Holman F. 34. Kirkman B. 3. Mabete F. 33. McGregor J. 28. Palmer O. 12. Ward L. (G)
Coaches
Ainsworth G.	Holloway I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Beckles O. 🟨,
43', Wright W. 🟨,
45', Tafazolli R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', Bodin B. ↓, Holman F. ↑,
60', Batty J. ↓, Kirkman B. ↑,
60', Hoilett J. ↓, Palmer O. ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Drinan A. ⚽, Ripley C. (A),
75', Oldaker D. ↓, McGregor J. ↑,
77', Drinan A. 🟨,
81', Clark M. ↓, McCleary G. ↑,
81', Hale R. ↓, Palmer-Houlden S. ↑,
81', Andrews J. ↓, Vokes S. ↑,
86', 0 - 2, Holman F. ⚽, McGregor J. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 16 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gillingham won 1.

Recent form of Gillingham has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Swindon has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Swindon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Swindon will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Gillingham: Antwi C. (Injury) Masterson C. (Inactive)

There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D. (Inactive) Glatzel P. (Inactive) Minturn H. (Groin Injury) Smith H. (Knee Injury) Snowdon J. (Injury) Wilson-Brown T. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Gillingham: Coleman E. (Inactive) Gale S. (Inactive) Smith J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Swindon: Ball J. (Inactive) Olakigbe M. (Inactive)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Gillingham won 7 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:19. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Gillingham won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.1:0.7).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Gillingham: 2% Swindon: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	15:10	5	16
17	Swindon	10	3	2	5	9:14	-5	11

Last Results with these Odds

Gillingham - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 36.3%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Swindon Town - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 34.9%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gillingham FC
English League Two
14.03.26	Cambridge United - Gillingham	5:0 ✺
10.03.26	Gillingham - Milton Keynes Dons	1:5 ✺
07.03.26	Gillingham - Fleetwood Town	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Barrow - Gillingham	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Gillingham - Oldham Athletic	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLTWL
- Swindon Town
English League Two
14.03.26	Swindon Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Crawley Town - Swindon Town	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Swindon Town - Bristol Rovers	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra	1:2 ✺
17.02.26	Barnet - Swindon Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
01.01.26	Swindon Town - Gillingham	2:0
26.04.25	Gillingham - Swindon Town	1:1
26.10.24	Swindon Town - Gillingham	1:1
13.02.24	Gillingham - Swindon Town	2:2
24.10.23	Swindon Town - Gillingham	0:1
28.01.23	Swindon Town - Gillingham	3:3
03.09.22	Gillingham - Swindon Town	0:0

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