Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 8

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Bridge Meadow Stadium (Haverfordwest)

Referee: Jones A. (Wal)


	Haverfordwest County		Gap Connahs Quay

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.35	2.72
	2.45	3.55	2.82
	3.24	2.70	2.56	Watch
	2.4	3.35	2.67
	1.99	3.18	2.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.13)	3.23 ↓ (3.43)	2.72 ↓ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Haverfordwest County
37.3%

Draw
28.7%

Gap Connahs Quay
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

26.9%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

26.3%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Haverfordwest County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Haverfordwest County's form might have worsened.

Gap Connahs Quay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Haverfordwest County than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Haverfordwest County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Haverfordwest County - Gap Connahs Quay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Knott I. (G) 3. Abbruzzese R. 28. Ahmun B. 10. Hawkins D. 24. Humphreys I. 11. Makwiramiti P. 14. Owen L. 2. Rees D. 8. Shephard C. 18. Walters G. 7. Watts R.	1. Margetson K. (G) 26. Cook J. 20. Cowan D. 14. Edwards N. 12. Franklin H. 17. Hughes R. 7. Kenny J. 3. Marriott Ch. 5. Nash B. 22. Poole D. 8. West C.
Substitutes
23. Hughes W. 27. James O. 31. Rees L. (G) 4. Scotcher E. 15. Shepherd T. 44. Thomas H. (G) 21. Watkins A.	35. Berry R. (G) 19. Buah A. 21. Fregapane M. 10. Ismail Z. 9. Oswell J. 76. Parry M. 18. Woodcock M.
Coaches
Pennock T.	Disney J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Cook J. 🟨,
8', Watts R. ↓, Shepherd T. ↑,
13', 0 - 1, West C. ⚽,
13', 🟨,
27', Cowan D. 🟨,
28', 1 - 1, Ahmun B. (Pen),
45', Humphreys I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
62', Ahmun B. 🟨,
68', 1 - 2, Hughes R. ⚽,
70', Ahmun B. 🟨,
74', Makwiramiti P. ↓, Scotcher E. ↑,
74', Owen L. ↓, Watkins A. ↑,
74', Humphreys I. ↓, Thomas H. ↑,
79', 🟨,
80', 🟨,
83', Rees D. 🟨,
90', 1 - 3, Hughes R. ⚽,
90+3', West C. ↓, Woodcock M. ↑,
90+3', Cook J. ↓, Fregapane M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Haverfordwest won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Connahs Quay may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Connahs Quay has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Haverfordwest won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 10:26. (average 0.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Haverfordwest won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:16. (average 0.8:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Haverfordwest County
Welsh Cymru Premier
13.09.25	Colwyn Bay - Haverfordwest County	3:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
10.09.25	Haverfordwest County - Swansea City U21	4:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
06.09.25	The New Saints - Haverfordwest County	5:0 ✺
30.08.25	Haverfordwest County - Caernarfon Town	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Haverfordwest County	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWLTW
- Gap Connahs Quay
Welsh Cymru Premier
13.09.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:1 ✺
Welsh League Cup
10.09.25	Gap Connahs Quay - The New Saints	1:3 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
02.09.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Bala Town	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	Pen-y-Bont - Gap Connahs Quay	0:1 ✺
25.08.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Flint Town United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
12.10.24	Haverfordwest County - Gap Connahs Quay	0:0
11.08.24	Gap Connahs Quay - Haverfordwest County	0:1
19.11.23	Gap Connahs Quay - Haverfordwest County	1:2
23.09.23	Haverfordwest County - Gap Connahs Quay	1:3
31.01.23	Haverfordwest County - Gap Connahs Quay	2:1
01.10.22	Gap Connahs Quay - Haverfordwest County	1:0
18.04.22	Gap Connahs Quay - Haverfordwest County	3:0

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