Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 9

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday

Location: Abe Lenstra Stadion (Heerenveen)

Referee: Hensgens R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN 2, ESPN


	Heerenveen		Excelsior

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.33	5	Watch
	1.60	4.50	4.80
	1.58	4.55	4.9
	1.61	4.75	5.31
	1.59	4.51	4.98	Watch
	1.58	4.45	5
	1.59	4.47	5.31	Watch
	1.57	4.5	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.76)	4.51 ↑ (4.09)	5.01 ↑ (4.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heerenveen
59.9%

Draw
21.1%

Excelsior
19%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53.7%

23.1%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

23.5%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Heerenveen's performance.

Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Heerenveen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	16.7%	5.6%

Heerenveen - Excelsior Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Heerenveen will win (votes: 14 - 77.8%). Excelsior will win (votes: 1 - 5.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heerenveen: 58.6% – 97%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 10th and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heerenveen won 2.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

In this matchup, Heerenveen is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Heerenveen: Proper D. (Hamstring Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Excelsior: Naujoks N. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Heerenveen has recorded 12 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 29:27 (averaging 1.5:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Heerenveen against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 17:10 goals (averaging 1.5:0.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Excelsior	8	3	2	3	16:14	2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	11:11	0	9

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Heerenveen: 0.21% Excelsior: 0.21%

Last Results with these Odds

Heerenveen - the odds 1.76 are the expected chance of winning is 53.65%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
09.10.26	PSV Eindhoven - Heerenveen	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Heerenveen	0:4 ✺
13.09.26	Heerenveen - Telstar	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	Heerenveen - AZ Alkmaar	2:3 ✺
30.08.26	Willem II - Heerenveen	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWTLT
- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
11.10.26	Excelsior - Groningen	1:5 ✺
19.09.26	Ajax - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Excelsior - Utrecht	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	NEC Nijmegen - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Willem II - Excelsior	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
07.03.26	Excelsior - Heerenveen	1:2
04.10.25	Heerenveen - Excelsior	2:1
19.01.24	Excelsior - Heerenveen	3:0
23.09.23	Heerenveen - Excelsior	0:3
13.05.23	Heerenveen - Excelsior	0:0
Club Friendly
22.12.22	Heerenveen - Excelsior	1:0
Dutch Eredivisie
05.11.22	Excelsior - Heerenveen	0:1

Heerenveen - Excelsior: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide