Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 34

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Voith-Arena (Heidenheim)

Referee: Hartmann R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Heidenheim		Mainz

	1	X	2
	1.95	4.2	3.3	Watch
	1.98	4.15	3.25	Watch
	2.07	4.3	3.33
	1.96	4.06	3.44	Watch
	1.95	3.9	3.2	Watch
	2.04	4.18	3.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.67)	4.13 ↓ (4.3)	3.31 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heidenheim
48%

Draw
23.1%

Mainz
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

22.1%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

22.3%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heidenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Heidenheim's performance.

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mainz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heidenheim than the current prediction. (-12.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Heidenheim that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mainz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	10.9%	1.6%

Heidenheim - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 63 users predict this event. Heidenheim will win (votes: 56 - 88.9%). Mainz will win (votes: 1 - 1.6%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heidenheim: 81.1% – 96.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Heidenheim (1.46) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Heidenheim will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Heidenheim (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Mainz (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Feller F. (G) 2. Busch M. 6. Mainka P. (C) 19. Fohrenbach J. 26. Behrens H. 8. Dinkci E. 3. Schoppner J. 30. Dorsch N. 22. Ibrahimovic A. 18. Pieringer M. 11. Zivzivadze B.	33. Batz D. (G) 31. Kohr D. 4. Posch S. 48. Potulski K. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 6. Sano K. 10. Amiri N. 2. Mwene P. 20. Tietz P. 23. Becker S.
Substitutes
21. Beck A. 10. Conteh C. 17. Honsak M. 20. Kerber L. 16. Niehues J. 41. Ramaj D. (G) 9. Schimmer S. 4. Siersleben T. 23. Traore O. H.	19. Caci A. 21. da Costa D. 24. Kawasaki S. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 15. Maloney L. 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N. 27. Zentner R. (G)
Coaches
Schmidt F.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Tietz P. ⚽,
43', 0 - 2, Amiri N. ⚽, Tietz P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Busch M. ↓, Traore O. H. ↑,
46', Pieringer M. ↓, Conteh C. ↑,
46', Posch S. ↓, da Costa D. ↑,
65', Ibrahimovic A. ↓, Schimmer S. ↑,
68', Amiri N. ↓, Lee Jae-Sung ↑,
68', Widmer S. ↓, Caci A. ↑,
70', Dinkci E. 🟨,
70', Becker S. 🟨,
73', Dinkci E. ↓, Honsak M. ↑,
73', Dorsch N. ↓, Beck A. ↑,
77', Becker S. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
84', Tietz P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 10).

Heidenheim is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mainz's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Heidenheim is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Heidenheim: Conteh S. (Knee Injury) Paqarada L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Leitsch M. (Thigh Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone)

There are questionable in Mainz: da Costa D. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heidenheim won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Heidenheim won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7

Last Results with these Odds

Mainz - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 42.27%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
German Bundesliga
10.05.26	Köln - Heidenheim	1:3 ✺
02.05.26	Bayern Munich - Heidenheim	3:3 ✺
25.04.26	Heidenheim - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Freiburg - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Heidenheim - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 35.3 WTWLW
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
10.05.26	Mainz - Union Berlin	1:3 ✺
03.05.26	St. Pauli - Mainz	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Mainz - Bayern Munich	3:4 ✺
19.04.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	Strasbourg - Mainz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
13.01.26	Mainz - Heidenheim	2:1
16.02.25	Heidenheim - Mainz	0:2
28.09.24	Mainz - Heidenheim	0:2
05.05.24	Heidenheim - Mainz	1:1
16.12.23	Mainz - Heidenheim	0:1

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