Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 11

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: MySteel Stadion (Helmond) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ruperti C. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Netherlands	20:00	ESPN 3


	Helmond Sport		NAC Breda

	1	X	2
	5.75	5	1.42	Watch
	4.60	4.40	1.53
	5.9	4.8	1.42	Watch
	6.12	5.07	1.45
	4.79	4.64	1.56	Watch
	6	5	1.42
	5.72	4.97	1.44	Watch
	5.4	4.7	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.54 ↑ (5.4)	4.82 ↓ (4.86)	1.46 ↓ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Helmond Sport
16.8%

Draw
19.3%

NAC Breda
63.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

17.3%

19.2%

63.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.6%

18.4%

66.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Helmond Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Helmond Sport than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Helmond Sport - NAC Breda Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Breda will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Breda (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bergsen M. (G) 20. Dekkers S. 4. Koglin B. (C) 3. Van Den Eynden F. 5. Poll T. 6. Ludwig M. 44. van der Velde X. 30. Ekoli K. 10. Huiberts D. 34. Essakkati T. 11. Cicero L.	1. Verrips M. (G) 2. Lucassen B. 4. Greiml L. 22. Hillen R. 12. Van den Bergh J. 6. Balard M. 10. Nassoh M. (C) 14. Sowah K. 78. Van Hecke J. 28. Brym C. 9. Soumano M.
Substitutes
9. Bajrami L. 23. El Maach A. (G) 47. Geerts D. 26. Gjoka A. 14. Golic L. 43. Landheer T. 94. Lenaerts M. 35. Meissner N. 2. van Bree R. 21. Van der Heijden W. (G) 7. van der Sluijs J.	17. Bouchouari M. 35. Brouwers M. 5. Candelaria J. 55. Ghalidi B. 19. Gladon P. 8. Jensen F. 23. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 11. Misehouy G. 27. Mperanyi K. 34. Nazih I. 26. Reulen P.
Coaches
Frans F.	Kruys R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
39', 0 - 1, Brym C. ⚽, Soumano M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', 0 - 2, Soumano M. (Penalty Awarded),
58', Huiberts D. ↓, Lenaerts M. ↑,
59', Van Den Eynden F. ↓, Golic L. ↑,
59', Ekoli K. ↓, van der Sluijs J. ↑,
64', Ludwig M. 🟨,
66', Lucassen B. 🟨,
70', Poll T. ↓, Landheer T. ↑,
75', Cicero L. ↓, Bajrami L. ↑,
75', Hillen R. 🟨,
82', Soumano M. ↓, Gladon P. ↑,
82', Balard M. ↓, Mperanyi K. ↑,
89', Nassoh M. ↓, Nazih I. ↑,
89', Brym C. ↓, Ghalidi B. ↑,
89', Van den Bergh J. ↓, Brouwers M. ↑,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 17th and 5th in the Promotion - Eredivisie (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Helmond Sport won 2.

Helmond Sport is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Breda shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Bookmakers give the edge to Breda for this game.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Helmond Sport has recorded 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:18 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Helmond Sport against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 10:6 goals (averaging 1.4:0.9 per game).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	NAC Breda	12	6	3	3	23:20	3	21
19	Helmond	12	2	3	7	20:26	-6	9

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

NAC Breda: 15.65%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Helmond Sport
Dutch Eerste Divisie
09.10.26	FC Oss - Helmond Sport	3:1 ✺
02.10.26	Helmond Sport - Heracles Almelo	2:2 ✺
26.09.26	MVV Maastricht - Helmond Sport	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Den Bosch - Helmond Sport	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Helmond Sport - Jong PSV	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LTLLW
- NAC Breda
Dutch Eerste Divisie
09.10.26	NAC Breda - MVV Maastricht	1:0 ✺
03.10.26	Vitesse - NAC Breda	2:2 ✺
26.09.26	NAC Breda - FC Eindhoven	4:2 ✺
20.09.26	De Graafschap - NAC Breda	1:2 ✺
11.09.26	NAC Breda - Jong Utrecht	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
26.01.24	Helmond Sport - NAC Breda	1:0
27.10.23	NAC Breda - Helmond Sport	1:1
13.01.23	Helmond Sport - NAC Breda	2:2
05.08.22	NAC Breda - Helmond Sport	1:0
18.03.22	Helmond Sport - NAC Breda	4:0
27.11.21	NAC Breda - Helmond Sport	1:0
12.03.21	NAC Breda - Helmond Sport	3:2

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