Match Info

NETHERLANDS: EERSTE DIVISIE - ROUND 23

Date: 26 January 2024, Friday

Location: GS Staalwerken Stadion (Helmond)

Referee: Puts K. (Ned)


	Helmond Sport		NAC Breda

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.8	2
	3.2	3.5	2
	3.4	3.75	2
	3.5	3.7	2.08
	3.54	3.85	2.03
	3.2	3.6	1.95
	3.42	3.64	2.01	Watch
	3.25	3.6	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↓ (3.84)	3.68 ↓ (3.76)	2 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Helmond Sport
27.8%

Draw
25.4%

NAC Breda
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.2%

24.7%

51.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.8%

24.3%

52%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Helmond Sport has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

NAC Breda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Helmond Sport than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that NAC Breda could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	16.7%	83.3%

Helmond Sport - NAC Breda Predictions

Users Predictions: NAC Breda will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. van der Steen W. (C) 15. Schmidt D. 3. Van Den Eynden F. 4. Kratschmer P. 28. Kreekels M. 20. Ostrc E. 6. Ludwig M. 14. Mallahi M. 9. Kaars M. 19. Botos G. 39. van den Hurk A.	1. Kortsmit R. (G) 3. Koscelnik M. 15. Martina C. (C) 5. Van den Bergh J. 21. Royo M. 6. Staring C. 39. Janosek D. 7. Garbett M. 10. Omarsson E. 17. Kuijpers R. 19. Boere T.
Substitutes
7. Amuzu J. 22. Lieftink E. 21. Mantel R. (G) 18. Marin A. 24. Schroijen J. 23. ten Hove R. (G) 10. Van Keilegom A. 27. Vankerkhoven L. 2. van Vlerken B.	23. Besselink R. 28. de Wijs S. 9. Haugen S. 14. Kaied A. 2. Lucassen B. 27. Marijnissen T. 22. Omgba A. 11. Sejdiu P. 49. Troost T. (G)
Coaches
Peeters B.	van Gastel J.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Helmond Sport won 1.

Helmond Sport is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Breda is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Breda could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Breda will have a small advantage in this match.

There are questionable in Breda: van Schuppen B. (Knee Injury)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Helmond Sport won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 13-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Helmond Sport won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Helmond Sport
Dutch Eerste Divisie
19.01.24	Helmond Sport - Jong PSV	2:2 ✺
12.01.24	Dordrecht - Helmond Sport	2:0 ✺
23.12.23	Helmond Sport - Roda	3:3 ✺
15.12.23	Willem II - Helmond Sport	4:1 ✺
08.12.23	Helmond Sport - MVV Maastricht	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLTLL
- NAC Breda
Dutch Eerste Divisie
13.01.24	Emmen - NAC Breda	2:3 ✺
22.12.23	NAC Breda - Willem II	1:2 ✺
15.12.23	ADO Den Haag - NAC Breda	3:1 ✺
08.12.23	NAC Breda - FC Oss	2:0 ✺
04.12.23	Jong PSV - NAC Breda	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
27.10.23	NAC Breda - Helmond Sport	1:1
13.01.23	Helmond Sport - NAC Breda	2:2
05.08.22	NAC Breda - Helmond Sport	1:0
18.03.22	Helmond Sport - NAC Breda	4:0
27.11.21	NAC Breda - Helmond Sport	1:0
12.03.21	NAC Breda - Helmond Sport	3:2
06.09.20	Helmond Sport - NAC Breda	0:2

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