Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: De Geusselt (Maastricht)

Referee: Wiersma W. (Ned)


	MVV Maastricht		Helmond Sport

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.5	3.1	Watch
	2.15	3.30	3.00
	2.15	3.4	3.05	Watch
	2.2	3.67	3.16
	2.16	3.62	3.09	Watch
	2.12	3.55	3.05
	2.11	3.54	3.1	Watch
	2.13	3.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.9)	3.5 ↓ (3.86)	3.07 ↓ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

MVV Maastricht
43.2%

Draw
26.5%

Helmond Sport
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

24.2%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

24.4%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

MVV Maastricht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that MVV Maastricht's form might have worsened.

Helmond Sport has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for MVV Maastricht than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for MVV Maastricht, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Helmond Sport than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

MVV Maastricht - Helmond Sport Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Maastricht will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wentges H. (G) 21. Asante D. 6. Dicke F. 22. Bouland S. 17. van der Wegen S. 16. Klaasen R. (C) 18. Sierra E. 24. El Hamdaoui N. 10. Dumont O. 7. Daneels L. 9. Vinogradac T.	1. Bergsen M. (G) 20. Dekkers S. 4. Koglin B. 43. Landheer T. 5. Poll T. 7. van der Sluijs J. 6. Ludwig M. 8. Llonch P. (C) 44. van der Velde X. 11. Cicero L. 34. Essakkati T.
Substitutes
20. Amgar A. 14. Kuipers M. 19. Luijendijk M. 27. Matoug N. 13. Timmers S. (G) 12. van der Heijden S. (G) 11. Verheijen T. 29. Zimuangana O.	22. Dizdarevic A. 30. Ekoli K. 23. El Maach A. (G) 47. Geerts D. 41. Geerts J. 94. Lenaerts M. 25. Meissner N. 2. van Bree R. 14. van den Boogaard B. 21. Van der Heijden W. (G)
Coaches
Jonker A.	Frans F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, Dumont O. ⚽, Sierra E. (A),
50', Daneels L. ↓, Zimuangana O. ↑,
56', Dumont O. 🟨,
56', Poll T. 🟨,
57', Dekkers S. 🟨,
61', Essakkati T. ↓, Lenaerts M. ↑,
67', Koglin B. 🟨,
71', Poll T. ↓, van den Boogaard B. ↑,
71', Llonch P. ↓, Ekoli K. ↑,
78', 2 - 0, Sierra E. ⚽, van der Wegen S. (A),
85', van der Velde X. ↓, Dizdarevic A. ↑,
86', El Hamdaoui N. ↓, Matoug N. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 6th in the Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: ) and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maastricht won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Maastricht holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Maastricht: Tehubijuluw D. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Maastricht: Hofland M. (Arm Injury) Timber D. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Maastricht has recorded 12 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 40:24 (averaging 2:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Maastricht against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 24:8 goals (averaging 2.2:0.7 per game).

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

Maastricht: 1.24%

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Maastricht	10	5	1	4	13:20	-7	16
17	Helmond	10	2	3	5	16:19	-3	9

Last Results with these Odds

Helmond Sport - the odds 3.49 are the expected chance of winning is 26.73%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MVV Maastricht
Dutch Eerste Divisie
18.09.26	Waalwijk - MVV Maastricht	6:1 ✺
11.09.26	MVV Maastricht - Almere City	0:4 ✺
06.09.26	MVV Maastricht - Roda	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Jong AZ Alkmaar - MVV Maastricht	1:2 ✺
21.08.26	MVV Maastricht - Volendam	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 LLTWW
- Helmond Sport
Dutch Eerste Divisie
18.09.26	Den Bosch - Helmond Sport	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Helmond Sport - Jong PSV	3:1 ✺
04.09.26	Helmond Sport - VVV-Venlo	4:2 ✺
28.08.26	Jong Ajax - Helmond Sport	3:2 ✺
21.08.26	Helmond Sport - Waalwijk	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
10.04.26	MVV Maastricht - Helmond Sport	0:0
05.12.25	Helmond Sport - MVV Maastricht	2:4
07.03.25	Helmond Sport - MVV Maastricht	4:0
27.10.24	MVV Maastricht - Helmond Sport	1:2
05.04.24	MVV Maastricht - Helmond Sport	3:0
08.12.23	Helmond Sport - MVV Maastricht	1:2
07.04.23	Helmond Sport - MVV Maastricht	1:2

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