Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 23

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: GS Staalwerken Stadion (Helmond)

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2


	Helmond Sport		Vitesse

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.8	2.65	Watch
	2.28	3.55	2.82	Watch
	2.28	3.71	2.81	Watch
	2.25	3.5	2.8
	2.3	3.8	2.7	Watch
	2.28	3.5	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.25)	3.64 ↓ (3.85)	2.76 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Helmond Sport
40.9%

Draw
25.5%

Vitesse
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

24.3%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

24.7%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Helmond Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Vitesse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Helmond Sport than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Vitesse aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	16.7%	25%

Helmond Sport - Vitesse Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Helmond Sport will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Vitesse will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Helmond Sport: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Helmond Sport (votes: 1 - 50%). Vitesse (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bergsen M. (G) 24. Et Taibi A. 4. Koglin B. 3. Van Den Eynden F. 5. Poll T. 36. Leipold A. 8. Llonch P. (C) 22. Dizdarevic A. 11. Daneels L. 19. Ingason H. 16. Lukowicz M.	16. van den Berg C. (G) 24. Markelo N. 55. Steffen M. 35. Achouitar O. 28. Buttner A. (C) 33. Marschalk M. 19. Tahaui A. 6. Schikora M. 13. Pinto J. 9. Huth E. 7. Hoogewerf D.
Substitutes
23. Aben K. (G) 27. Absalem A. 9. Bajrami L. 34. Essakkati T. 47. Geerts D. 41. Geerts J. 6. Ludwig M. 26. Makanza N. 2. Ogenia J. . van Sleeuwen W.	20. Bannis N. 2. Bonnah S. 31. Brull M. (G) 30. Driezen M. 8. Moustafa A. 34. Ouallil Y. 11. Ranon Y. 23. Siecker J. (G) 38. te Veluwe K. 22. Thenu X. 27. Zonneveld N. 17. Zumberi V.
Coaches
Seegers J.	Rehm R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Llonch P. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Lukowicz M. ⚽, Poll T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
60', Llonch P. ↓, Makanza N. ↑,
64', Huth E. ↓, Bannis N. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Bannis N. ⚽, Pinto J. (A),
72', Pinto J. 🟨,
75', Poll T. ↓, Absalem A. ↑,
75', Ingason H. ↓, Geerts D. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Makanza N. ⚽,
79', Bannis N. 🟨,
85', Marschalk M. ↓, Ranon Y. ↑,
85', Pinto J. ↓, Zonneveld N. ↑,
85', Leipold A. ↓, Ogenia J. ↑,
86', Lukowicz M. ↓, Bajrami L. ↑,
90+2', Buttner A. ↓, K. te Veluwe ↑,
90+2', Tahaui A. ↓, Zumberi V. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 2, Schikora M. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 15 and 20).

Helmond Sport has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vitesse's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Helmond Sport won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Helmond Sport won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

Vitesse: 2.39%

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	15:15	0	14
17	Helmond	10	2	3	5	16:19	-3	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Helmond Sport
Dutch Eerste Divisie
21.12.25	Helmond Sport - Willem II	2:2 ✺
12.12.25	Emmen - Helmond Sport	4:1 ✺
05.12.25	Helmond Sport - MVV Maastricht	2:4 ✺
28.11.25	Cambuur - Helmond Sport	0:0 ✺
24.11.25	Helmond Sport - Jong Ajax	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TLLTW
- Vitesse Arnhem
Dutch Eerste Divisie
21.12.25	Den Bosch - Vitesse	2:0 ✺
10.12.25	Vitesse - Waalwijk	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Vitesse - FC Oss	0:0 ✺
04.12.25	Vitesse - De Graafschap	1:2 ✺
01.12.25	Jong Ajax - Vitesse	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
20.09.25	Vitesse - Helmond Sport	3:1
21.02.25	Helmond Sport - Vitesse	3:0
29.11.24	Vitesse - Helmond Sport	2:1
Club Friendly
04.01.13	Vitesse - Helmond Sport	Canceled

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