Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 21

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: GS Staalwerken Stadion (Helmond)

Referee: Hensgens R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 4


	Helmond Sport		Willem II

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.6	2.5	Watch
	2.58	3.45	2.52
	2.77	3.55	2.5
	2.59	3.65	2.48	Watch
	2.63	3.4	2.45
	2.6	3.42	2.49	Watch
	2.54	3.4	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (2.64)	3.5 ↑ (3.44)	2.5 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Helmond Sport
35.8%

Draw
26.7%

Willem II
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

27.1%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

26.5%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Helmond Sport has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Willem II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Helmond Sport than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	33.3%	22.2%

Helmond Sport - Willem II Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Helmond Sport will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Willem II will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Helmond Sport: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bergsen M. (G) 24. Et Taibi A. 3. Van Den Eynden F. (C) 28. Vos D. 5. Poll T. 36. Leipold A. 22. Dizdarevic A. 19. Ingason H. 34. Essakkati T. 47. Geerts D. 16. Lukowicz M.	1. Didillon T. (C) 2. Ciranni A. 30. Behounek R. 3. Stam F. 24. Tjoe a On N. 6. Besselink G. 7. Doodeman N. 19. van Aalst U. 20. El Allouchi M. 8. Culum A. 9. Haen D.
Substitutes
23. Aben K. (G) 27. Absalem A. 9. Bajrami L. 41. Geerts J. 4. Koglin B. 8. Llonch P. 6. Ludwig M. 2. Ogenia J. 17. Semic L. 21. Wentges H. (G)	47. Baartmans S. 17. Bamba S. 31. de Leeuw K. (G) 4. Hoogma J. 11. Kehrer E. 41. Kotte T. (G) 14. Mathijsen J. 48. Poortvliet J. 22. van Loon P. 45. van Maarschalkerwaard P. 28. Verheydt T. 18. Zarrouk A.
Coaches
Seegers J.	Stegeman J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', Geerts D. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Besselink G. ⚽, Ciranni A. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Lukowicz M. ⚽, Et Taibi A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Geerts D. ↓, Llonch P. ↑,
50', 2 - 1, Et Taibi A. ⚽, Ingason H. (A),
52', Culum A. 🟨,
62', Vos D. 🟨,
62', El Allouchi M. ↓, Baartmans S. ↑,
62', Culum A. ↓, Bamba S. ↑,
66', Leipold A. ↓, Ogenia J. ↑,
74', Et Taibi A. 🟨,
74', Behounek R. ↓, Verheydt T. ↑,
75', Tjoe a On N. ↓, Hoogma J. ↑,
78', Essakkati T. ↓, Koglin B. ↑,
78', Ingason H. ↓, Absalem A. ↑,
82', 2 - 2, Haen D. (Penalty Awarded),
83', Hoogma J. 🟨,
83', van Aalst U. ↓, Zarrouk A. ↑,
88', Van Den Eynden F. ↓, Semic L. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 15 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Helmond Sport won 0.

Helmond Sport has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Willem II has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Willem II may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Helmond Sport won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:21. (average 0.8:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Helmond Sport won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:10. (average 0.8:2.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Helmond Sport - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.36%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Willem II - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.5%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Helmond Sport
Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.12.25	Emmen - Helmond Sport	4:1 ✺
05.12.25	Helmond Sport - MVV Maastricht	2:4 ✺
28.11.25	Cambuur - Helmond Sport	0:0 ✺
24.11.25	Helmond Sport - Jong Ajax	2:1 ✺
21.11.25	De Graafschap - Helmond Sport	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLTWL
- Willem II
Dutch KNVB Beker
18.12.25	Willem II - Sparta Rotterdam	1:5 ✺
Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.12.25	Willem II - Cambuur	0:1 ✺
06.12.25	Willem II - Dordrecht	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Den Bosch - Willem II	2:1 ✺
21.11.25	VVV-Venlo - Willem II	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
30.09.25	Willem II - Helmond Sport	1:0
29.03.24	Helmond Sport - Willem II	0:2
15.12.23	Willem II - Helmond Sport	4:1
03.02.23	Willem II - Helmond Sport	5:1
14.10.22	Helmond Sport - Willem II	1:3
Club Friendly
14.07.15	Helmond Sport - Willem II	1:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
22.02.14	Willem II - Helmond Sport	1:1

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