Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 21

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Asito Stadium (Almelo)

Referee: Martens R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra


	Heracles Almelo		Fortuna Sittard

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.3	Watch
	2.3	3.7	2.8
	2.18	3.45	3.25
	2.23	3.55	3.37
	2.18	3.49	3.25	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.2
	2.23	3.4	3.34	Watch
	2.16	3.33	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.44)	3.45 (3.45)	3.22 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heracles Almelo
43.2%

Draw
27.4%

Fortuna Sittard
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

27%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

26.6%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Fortuna Sittard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fortuna Sittard might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Sittard than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Heracles Almelo - Fortuna Sittard Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Heracles will win (votes: 9 - 50%). Fortuna Sittard will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heracles: 26.9% – 73.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Heracles (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Fortuna Sittard (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pasveer R. (G) 23. te Wierik M. 18. Van Hoorenbeeck A. 24. Mesik I. 2. Benita M. 70. Hrustic A. 4. Mirani D. (C) 5. van der Kust D. 73. Ould Chikh W. 9. Unuvar N. 25. Zeefuik L.	31. Branderhorst M. (G) 4. Adewoye S. 44. Marquez I. 21. Kasanwirjo N. 12. Pinto I. (C) 23. Brittijn P. 20. Michut E. 28. Hubner J. 52. Ihattaren M. 7. Peterson K. 9. Sierhuis K.
Substitutes
39. Blokhuis S. 21. Borges Sanches Y. 6. Cestic S. 8. Engels M. 16. Jansink T. (G) 19. Kulenovic L. 7. Limbombe B. 30. Mantel R. (G) 27. Tijink J. 17. van Gilst T. 3. Wieckhoff J. 13. Zamburek J.	22. Bastien S. 46. Gbemou M. 19. Gladon P. 10. Halilovic A. 18. Limnios D. 25. Martens N. (G) 38. Schenkhuizen T. 6. van Ottele S. 48. van Parys L. (G)
Coaches
Faber E.	Buijs D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
26', 1 - 0, Hrustic A. ⚽, van der Kust D. (A),
33', Hubner J. 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Sierhuis K. ⚽, Peterson K. (A),
44', 2 - 1, Van Hoorenbeeck A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Adewoye S. 🟨,
58', Unuvar N. 🟨,
60', Marquez I. 🟨,
62', Adewoye S. ↓, Gladon P. ↑,
73', Unuvar N. ↓, Engels M. ↑,
77', Pinto I. ↓, Limnios D. ↑,
84', Hrustic A. ↓, van Gilst T. ↑,
84', Benita M. ↓, Wieckhoff J. ↑,
84', Zeefuik L. ↓, Kulenovic L. ↑,
88', Peterson K. ↓, Halilovic A. ↑,
89', Michut E. ↓, Bastien S. ↑,
90', Ould Chikh W. 🟨,
90+2', Ould Chikh W. ↓, Zamburek J. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 0.

Heracles is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Fortuna Sittard has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Heracles may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Heracles: Reine-Adelaide J. (Knee Injury) Scheperman S. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Fortuna Sittard: Bayram R. (Knee Injury) Dahlhaus J. (Inactive) Sinkgraven D. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Heracles: Ahlstrand E. (Injury) de Keijzer F. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Fortuna Sittard: Lonwijk J. (Inactive) Tunjic L. (Inactive)

We predict that Fortuna Sittard will win today's game, with odds of 2.87.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:15. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:5. (average 2.3:0.8).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Heracles: 35.06%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Sittard	8	4	2	2	14:15	-1	14

Last Results with these Odds

Heracles Almelo - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 38.19%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Fortuna Sittard - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.77%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eredivisie
25.01.26	Feyenoord - Heracles Almelo	4:2 ✺
18.01.26	Heracles Almelo - Twente	0:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Heracles Almelo	3:2 penalties ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
11.01.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Heracles Almelo	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Heracles Almelo - Heerenveen	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Fortuna Sittard
Dutch Eredivisie
25.01.26	Groningen - Fortuna Sittard	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Fortuna Sittard - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Fortuna Sittard	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Fortuna Sittard - AZ Alkmaar	4:3 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
17.12.25	Fortuna Sittard - Almere City	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
29.11.25	Fortuna Sittard - Heracles Almelo	1:1
08.03.25	Fortuna Sittard - Heracles Almelo	1:0
07.12.24	Heracles Almelo - Fortuna Sittard	2:2
19.05.24	Heracles Almelo - Fortuna Sittard	0:0
10.11.23	Fortuna Sittard - Heracles Almelo	4:1
03.04.22	Fortuna Sittard - Heracles Almelo	0:2
20.11.21	Heracles Almelo - Fortuna Sittard	3:1

Heracles Almelo - Fortuna Sittard: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide