Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 18

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel (Rotterdam)

Referee: van der Laan J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra


	Sparta Rotterdam		Heracles Almelo

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.8	4.75	Watch
	1.72	3.9	4.65
	1.72	3.85	4.72	Watch
	1.73	3.5	4.4
	1.78	3.85	4.58	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.8)	3.75 ↓ (3.8)	4.6 ↑ (4.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sparta Rotterdam
54.3%

Draw
25.2%

Heracles Almelo
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

24.9%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

24.6%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sparta Rotterdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Heracles Almelo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sparta Rotterdam than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	9.1%	9.1%

Sparta Rotterdam - Heracles Almelo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Sparta Rotterdam (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sparta Rotterdam will win (18 of 22 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.7% – 97.94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sparta Rotterdam will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Sparta Rotterdam (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Drommel J. (G) 2. Martes L. 3. Young M. 4. Martins Indi B. (C) 5. Quintero T. 6. Kitolano J. 8. Santos A. 11. Mito S. 10. van Crooij V. 7. van Bergen M. 9. Lauritsen T.	16. Jansink T. (G) 23. te Wierik M. 4. Mirani D. (C) 18. Van Hoorenbeeck A. 24. Mesik I. 70. Hrustic A. 13. Zamburek J. 14. Ahlstrand E. 25. Zeefuik L. 73. Ould Chikh W. 19. Kulenovic L.
Substitutes
18. Baas J. 12. Bakari S. 20. Bednarek F. (G) 21. Clement P. 13. de Guzman J. 17. Duijvestijn L. 15. Kleijn M. 30. Kuiper P. (G) 22. Ltaief S. 19. Thorisson N. 16. Toornstra J. 14. Velthuis T.	2. Benita M. 39. Blokhuis S. 10. Bruns T. 6. Cestic S. 1. de Keijzer F. (G) 8. Engels M. 7. Limbombe B. 30. Mantel R. (G) 27. Tijink J. 5. van der Kust D. 17. van Gilst T. 3. Wieckhoff J.
Coaches
Steijn M.	Faber E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Lauritsen T. ⚽, Mito S. (A),
17', Martes L. 🟨,
28', van Crooij V. ↓, Baas J. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Mirani D. 🟨,
64', Ahlstrand E. ↓, Engels M. ↑,
64', te Wierik M. ↓, Benita M. ↑,
69', Santos A. ↓, Clement P. ↑,
71', Zeefuik L. 🟨,
76', Zamburek J. ↓, Bruns T. ↑,
82', Bruns T. 🟨,
85', Kulenovic L. ↓, Limbombe B. ↑,
85', Mirani D. ↓, van Gilst T. ↑,
88', 2 - 0, Clement P. ⚽, Lauritsen T. (A),
90+3', Mito S. ↓, Ltaief S. ↑,
90+3', Kitolano J. ↓, Toornstra J. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sparta Rotterdam won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Sparta Rotterdam is the team to beat.

There will not play in Sparta Rotterdam: Sambo S. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Heracles: Borges Sanches Y. (Injury) Milani L. (Injury) Reine-Adelaide J. (Knee Injury) Scheperman S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Heracles: Benita M. (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Sparta Rotterdam won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:24. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sparta Rotterdam won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.1:1.3).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Heracles: 35.06%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	13:20	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Heracles Almelo - the odds 4.17 are the expected chance of winning is 22.66%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sparta Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
21.12.25	Volendam - Sparta Rotterdam	0:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
18.12.25	Willem II - Sparta Rotterdam	1:5 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
14.12.25	Sparta Rotterdam - Heerenveen	0:3 ✺
07.12.25	Sparta Rotterdam - NAC Breda	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	NEC Nijmegen - Sparta Rotterdam	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLWL
- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eredivisie
20.12.25	Heracles Almelo - Heerenveen	0:3 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
16.12.25	Heracles Almelo - Hoogeveen	4:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
13.12.25	PSV Eindhoven - Heracles Almelo	4:3 ✺
06.12.25	Heracles Almelo - Telstar	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Fortuna Sittard - Heracles Almelo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
27.09.25	Heracles Almelo - Sparta Rotterdam	3:0
11.01.25	Heracles Almelo - Sparta Rotterdam	1:1
11.08.24	Sparta Rotterdam - Heracles Almelo	0:0
06.04.24	Sparta Rotterdam - Heracles Almelo	1:2
02.12.23	Heracles Almelo - Sparta Rotterdam	0:1
Club Friendly
15.07.22	Sparta Rotterdam - Heracles Almelo	1:0
Dutch Eredivisie
15.05.22	Heracles Almelo - Sparta Rotterdam	1:3

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