Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 6

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: PreZero Arena (Sinsheim)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hoffenheim		Köln

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.7	3.75	Watch
	1.88	3.8	3.75
	1.95	3.95	3.55	Watch
	2	3.85	3.77
	4.21	3.52	1.84	Watch
	1.99	3.98	3.82	Watch
	1.94	3.9	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2)	3.81 ↓ (3.88)	3.44 ↓ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hoffenheim
44.4%

Draw
26.4%

Köln
29.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.9%

24.6%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

25.3%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hoffenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Köln has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.7%	22.6%	9.7%

Hoffenheim - Köln Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Hoffenheim will win (votes: 20 - 66.7%). Köln will win (votes: 3 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 23.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 49.8% – 83.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +0.5 - Köln (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.25 - Hoffenheim (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hoffenheim will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 7 - 70%). Köln (votes: 2 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 2. Hranac R. 21. Hajdari A. 13. Bernardo 10. Damar M. 7. Avdullahu L. 18. Burger W. 29. Toure B. 19. Lemperle T. 11. Asllani F.	1. Schwabe M. (C) 2. Schmied J. 4. Hubers T. 3. Heintz D. 28. Sebulonsen S. 6. Martel E. 32. Lund K. 18. Johannesson I. 16. Kaminski J. 29. Thielmann J. 13. El Mala S.
Substitutes
25. Akpoguma K. 35. Arthur Chaves 9. Bebou I. 27. Kramaric A. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G) 22. Prass A. 6. Promel G. 17. Tohumcu U.	9. Ache R. 17. Castro-Montes A. 8. Huseinbasic D. 11. Kainz F. 5. Krauss T. 37. Maina L. 39. Ozkacar C. 7. Waldschmidt L. 20. Zieler R. (G)
Coaches
Ilzer C.	Kwasniok L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Toure B. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, El Mala S. ⚽, Martel E. (A),
20', Bernardo 🟨,
39', Burger W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Thielmann J. ↓, Ache R. ↑,
65', Avdullahu L. ↓, Promel G. ↑,
65', Lemperle T. ↓, Bebou I. ↑,
70', Asllani F. ↓, Moerstedt M. ↑,
71', Damar M. ↓, Kramaric A. ↑,
72', El Mala S. ↓, Maina L. ↑,
72', Heintz D. ↓, Ozkacar C. ↑,
84', Lund K. ↓, Krauss T. ↑,
84', Johannesson I. ↓, Huseinbasic D. ↑,
90', Bernardo ↓, Prass A. ↑,
90+5', Sebulonsen S. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Hoffenheim could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Gendrey V. (Ankle Injury) Hlozek A. (Foot Injury) Kabak O. (Knee Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Köln: Kilian L. (Knee Injury) van den Berg R. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Köln: Bulter M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 45:22. (average 2.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Hoffenheim won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 28:11. (average 2.8:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
28.09.25	Freiburg - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich	1:4 ✺
13.09.25	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	2:4 ✺
30.08.25	Hoffenheim - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 TLWLW
- 1. FC Köln
German Bundesliga
28.09.25	Köln - Stuttgart	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	RB Leipzig - Köln	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Wolfsburg - Köln	3:3 ✺
31.08.25	Köln - Freiburg	4:1 ✺
24.08.25	Mainz - Köln	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
11.02.24	Hoffenheim - Köln	1:1
16.09.23	Köln - Hoffenheim	1:3
22.04.23	Hoffenheim - Köln	1:3
30.10.22	Köln - Hoffenheim	1:1
06.03.22	Köln - Hoffenheim	0:1
15.10.21	Hoffenheim - Köln	5:0
24.01.21	Hoffenheim - Köln	3:0

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