Match Info

DFB Pokal - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)

Referee: Welz T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Holstein Kiel		Stuttgart

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.5	1.5	Watch
	5.9	4.7	1.5	Watch
	6.1	4.7	1.51
	45.42	7.02	1.11	Watch
	5.5	4.2	1.44
	6.2	4.73	1.56	Watch
	5.75	4.75	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	11.48 ↑ (5.62)	4.94 ↑ (4.43)	1.44 ↓ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
8.9%

Draw
20.6%

Stuttgart
70.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.8%

21.3%

62%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.4%

24.9%

72.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Holstein Kiel's form might have worsened.

Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stuttgart's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Holstein Kiel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5%	17.5%	77.5%

Holstein Kiel - Stuttgart Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 2 - 5%). Stuttgart will win (votes: 31 - 77.5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 17.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stuttgart: 64.6% – 90.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH -1.5 - Stuttgart (2.11) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Stuttgart (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stuttgart will win (17 of 19 users predict this - 89.47%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Holstein Kiel (votes: 2 - 9.1%). Stuttgart (votes: 20 - 90.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weiner T. (G) 13. Nekic I. 26. Zec D. 6. Ivezic M. 47. Tolkin J. 15. Davidsen K. 28. Meffert J. 8. Tohumcu U. 16. Kelati A. 20. Kapralik A. 19. Harres P.	33. Nubel A. (G) 4. Vagnoman J. 24. Chabot J. 3. Hendriks R. 7. Mittelstadt M. 16. Karazor A. (C) 6. Stiller A. 18. Leweling J. 11. El Khannouss B. 10. Fuhrich C. 26. Undav D.
Substitutes
18. Jakupovic A. 21. Krumrey J. (G) 25. Muller M. 29. Niehoff N. 40. Parduzi L. 23. Rosenboom L. 2. Roslyng F. 22. Schwab S. 10. Therkelsen J.	2. Al Dakhil A. 30. Andres C. 22. Assignon L. 27. Bouanani B. 1. Bredlow F. (G) 9. Demirovic E. 29. Jeltsch F. 25. Jeremy Arevalo 15. Stenzel P.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Hoeness S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', El Khannouss B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
54', Tohumcu U. ↓, Schwab S. ↑,
56', 0 - 1, Undav D. ⚽,
70', Kapralik A. ↓, Jakupovic A. ↑,
70', Davidsen K. ↓, Therkelsen J. ↑,
81', Leweling J. ↓, Demirovic E. ↑,
85', Kelati A. ↓, Niehoff N. ↑,
85', Nekic I. ↓, Muller M. ↑,
89', 0 - 2, Fuhrich C. ⚽, Undav D. (A),
90+1', Fuhrich C. ↓, Jeltsch F. ↑,
90+1', El Khannouss B. ↓, Bouanani B. ↑,
90+1', Stiller A. ↓, Andres C. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 3, Karazor A. ⚽, Demirovic E. (A),

Preview

Holstein Kiel has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Stuttgart is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Stuttgart may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Stuttgart is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Bernhardsson A. (Foot Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Johansson C. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Stuttgart: Jovanovic L. (Back Injury) Nartey N. (Knock) Zagadou D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Stuttgart: Bredlow F. (Calf Injury) Tomas T. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 2:2).

Outrights of German DFB Pokal for now

Holstein Kiel: 0.78%

Last Results with these Odds

Stuttgart - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 61.99%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
31.01.26	Holstein Kiel - Greuther Fürth	1:2 ✺
23.01.26	Arminia Bielefeld - Holstein Kiel	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Holstein Kiel - Paderborn	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.01.26	Ferencvárosi - Holstein Kiel	0:2 ✺
07.01.26	Holstein Kiel - Servette	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LTWWT
- VfB Stuttgart
German Bundesliga
01.02.26	Stuttgart - Freiburg	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Stuttgart - Young Boys	3:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
25.01.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Stuttgart	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	Roma - Stuttgart	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.01.26	Stuttgart - Union Berlin	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
08.03.25	Holstein Kiel - Stuttgart	2:2
26.10.24	Stuttgart - Holstein Kiel	2:1
German 2 Bundesliga
24.05.20	Holstein Kiel - Stuttgart	3:2
20.10.19	Stuttgart - Holstein Kiel	0:1
German DFB Pokal
08.08.15	Holstein Kiel - Stuttgart	1:2

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