Match Info

K League 1 - Round 21

Date: 2 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Jeju World Cup Stadium (Seogwipo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Jeju		Incheon United

	1	X	2
	2.90	3.00	2.35	Watch
	2.95	3.00	2.45	Watch
	2.63	3.00	2.50
	3.24	3.04	2.57
	3.11	2.97	2.47	Watch
	3.10	2.95	2.50
	3.08	2.96	2.47	Watch
	2.95	3.00	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↓ (3.14)	2.99 ↑ (2.96)	2.47 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jeju
31.1%

Draw
31.2%

Incheon United
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

31.6%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

31.9%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jeju has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Incheon United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jeju than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Incheon United than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Jeju - Incheon United Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Jeju will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Incheon will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - under (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim Dong-Jun (G) 17. Yu In-Soo 2. Figueiredo T. 3. Celestine J. 40. Kim Ryun-sung (C) 5. Italo 14. Oh Jae-Hyeok 27. Kim Jun-ha 7. Park Chang-Jun 94. Emerson Negueba 18. Kim Shin-Jin	1. Kim Dong-Heon (G) 39. Kim Myung-soon 4. Kim Gun-Hee 2. Ibiza 32. Lee Ju-Yong 17. Kim Seong-Min 15. Seo Jae-Min 5. Lee Myoung-Joo (C) 11. Gerso 72. Lee Chung-Yong 9. Mugosa S.
Substitutes
21. An Chan-Gi (G) 24. Choi Byung-wook 13. Chung W. 20. Jang M. 88. Jo In-jung 55. Kang Dong-hwi 6. Kwon Gi-min 9. Matheus Aias 47. Park Min-jae	13. Choi Seung-gu 99. Ferrier M. 23. Jeong Chi-In 30. Kim Young-whan 10. Lee Dong-Ryul 3. Lee Sang-Gi 21. Lee Tae-Hui (G) 6. Mun Ji-Hwan 20. Park Kyung-sub
Coaches
Costa S.	Yoon Jong-Hwan

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
12', 1 - 0, Kim Shin-Jin ⚽, Emerson Negueba (A),
34', 1 - 1, Kim Gun-Hee ⚽, Lee Ju-Yong (A),
37', 1 - 2, Kim Gun-Hee ⚽, Lee Ju-Yong (A),
38', Lee Chung-Yong 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 2, Figueiredo T. ⚽, Oh Jae-Hyeok (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mugosa S. ↓, Ferrier M. ↑,
46', Kim Seong-Min ↓, Lee Dong-Ryul ↑,
46', Park Chang-Jun ↓, Matheus Aias ↑,
50', Kim Myung-soon 🟨,
56', 3 - 2, Matheus Aias ⚽, Kim Jun-ha (A),
60', Seo Jae-Min ↓, Kim Young-whan ↑,
62', 3 - 3, Lee Ju-Yong ⚽,
69', Oh Jae-Hyeok 🟨,
71', Figueiredo T. 🟨,
74', Kim Shin-Jin ↓, Jang M. ↑,
74', Kim Jun-ha ↓, Choi Byung-wook ↑,
78', Oh Jae-Hyeok ↓, Park Min-jae ↑,
84', Lee Myoung-Joo ↓, Mun Ji-Hwan ↑,
84', Kim Myung-soon ↓, Choi Seung-gu ↑,
87', Yu In-Soo ↓, Kwon Gi-min ↑,
90+3', Celestine J. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jeju won 3.

Jeju is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Incheon's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Jeju has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Jeju won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:21. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Jeju won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Jeju SK	31	12	10	9	36:31	5	46
7	Incheon	31	11	9	11	39:33	6	42

Last Results with these Odds

Jeju - the odds 3.14 are the expected chance of winning is 29.78%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jeju SK
South Korean Cup
29.07.26	Jeju - Hwaseong	4:3 penalties ✺
South Korean K-League 1
26.07.26	Gwangju - Jeju	1:2 ✺
21.07.26	Jeju - Gangwon	1:1 ✺
18.07.26	Jeju - Pohang Steelers	2:1 ✺
12.07.26	Jeju - Daejeon Citizen	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWTWT
- Incheon United
South Korean Cup
29.07.26	Gimpo - Incheon United	1:0 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
26.07.26	Incheon United - Bucheon	1:1 ✺
21.07.26	Ulsan HD - Incheon United	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	Incheon United - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	1:0 ✺
12.07.26	Incheon United - Anyang	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
25.04.26	Incheon United - Jeju	1:0
19.10.24	Incheon United - Jeju	1:2
10.08.24	Jeju - Incheon United	0:1
26.06.24	Jeju - Incheon United	1:0
06.04.24	Incheon United - Jeju	0:1
16.09.23	Incheon United - Jeju	2:1
10.05.23	Jeju - Incheon United	2:0

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