Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - QUALIFICATION - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 1 March 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot (Medellín)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports


	Independiente Medellín		El Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.5	4	6.5	Watch
	1.51	4.2	6
	1.5	4	5.75
	1.51	4.23	6.69
	1.5	3.75	6
	1.53	4.15	6.15	Watch
	1.49	4	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.54)	4.05 ↑ (3.85)	6.13 ↑ (5.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
61.8%

Draw
23%

El Nacional
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.9%

23.9%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

22.3%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente Medellín that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Independiente Medellín - El Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ind Medellín will win (votes: 2 - 50%). El Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Independiente Medellín is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

El Nacional is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

El Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Independiente Medellín have a series of guest games.

In this match Independiente Medellín is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Independiente Medellín won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
26.02.23	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Medellín	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.02.23	El Nacional - Independiente Medellín	2:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
18.02.23	Independiente Medellín - América de Cali	0:1 ✺
15.02.23	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Medellín	2:1 ✺
11.02.23	Envigado - Independiente Medellín	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTLLL
- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.02.23	SD Aucas - El Nacional	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
22.02.23	El Nacional - Independiente Medellín	2:2 ✺
15.02.23	El Nacional - Nacional Potosí	3:1 ✺
08.02.23	Nacional Potosí - El Nacional	1:6 ✺
Club Friendly
29.01.23	LDU Quito - El Nacional	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
22.02.23	El Nacional - Independiente Medellín	2:2

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