Match Info

Date: 25 November 2020, Wednesday


	Independiente del Valle		Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.45	4	6.5	Watch
	1.5	3.9	6.75
	1.5	4.1	6.1
	1.48	4	6.4
	1.5	4.36	6.95
	1.52	4	6.5
	1.51	4.25	6.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.58)	4.09 ↑ (3.72)	6.54 ↑ (5.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente del Valle
62.7%

Draw
22.9%

Nacional
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

25%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

15.2%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-27%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente del Valle that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.7%	3.3%	20%

Independiente del Valle - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). Nacional will win (votes: 6 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind del Valle: 61.6% – 91.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Independiente del Valle is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nacional is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Independiente del Valle could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Independiente del Valle is certain favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.11.20	Independiente del Valle - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
18.11.20	SD Aucas - Independiente del Valle	3:3 ✺
15.11.20	Independiente del Valle - LDU Portoviejo	2:3 ✺
10.11.20	Barcelona Guayaquil - Independiente del Valle	2:0 ✺
05.11.20	Independiente del Valle - Deportivo Cuenca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTLLW
- Atletico Nacional
Taça de Portugal
25.11.20	Casa Pia - Nacional	2:3 ET ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.11.20	Nacional - Danubio	0:2 ✺
12.11.20	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.20	Nacional - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.11.20	Nacional - Defensor Sporting	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLWWW

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