Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 27 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Ospina J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	beIN Sports 1
Belarus	Okko Sport
Brazil	Caze TV, Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Colombia	ESPN 2
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV2
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Vasco da Gama		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.5	8	Watch
	1.41	4.4	7.75
	1.38	4.33	8.5	Watch
	1.4	4.43	8.44
	1.41	4.39	8.74	Watch
	1.4	4	8.5	Watch
	1.43	4.49	7.68	Watch
	1.38	4.33	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.47)	4.36 ↑ (4.19)	8.26 ↑ (6.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
67%

Draw
21.6%

FBC Melgar
11.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.6%

22.4%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

21.6%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vasco da Gama that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	30%	10%

Vasco da Gama - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Melgar will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Melgar (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Melgar (2.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Melgar (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Melgar (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 3. Tche Tche 8. Jair 77. Rayan 11. Coutinho 17. Moreira N. 99. Vegetti P.	12. Caceda C. (G) 33. Lazo M. 2. Barrios P. 6. Gonzalez L. 13. Llontop M. 15. Orzan H. 10. Martinez T. 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 24. Tandazo W. 19. Rodriguez G. 17. Liza P.
Substitutes
28. Adson 90. Alex Teixeira 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 15. Garre B. 21. Jean David 4. Lemos M. 29. Lucas Oliveira 44. Luiz Gustavo 85. Mateus Carvalho 2. Rodriguez J. 20. Sforza J. 12. Victor Luis	28. Arias A. 25. Barreda M. 20. Bernaola G. 27. Cabanillas N. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 11. Castro F. 5. Deneumostier A. 8. Guzman L. 36. Nunez P. 4. Ramos E. 77. Saba E. 22. Vivanco P.
Coaches
Fernando Diniz	Ribonetto W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Rayan ⚽, Coutinho (A),
33', 2 - 0, Paulo Henrique ⚽,
37', Jair 🟨,
44', 3 - 0, Vegetti P. ⚽, Tche Tche (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Martinez T. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
62', Rodriguez G. ↓, Vivanco P. ↑,
64', Coutinho ↓, Garre B. ↑,
74', Tche Tche ↓, Adson ↑,
74', Moreira N. ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
75', Rayan ↓, Alex Teixeira ↑,
79', Lazo M. ↓, Arias A. ↑,
79', Llontop M. ↓, Cabanillas N. ↑,
80', Lucas Freitas 🟨,
83', Vivanco P. 🟨,
84', Paulo Henrique ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
90', Gonzalez L. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Vasco may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vasco is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vasco won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Vasco da Gama - the odds 1.47 are the expected chance of winning is 63.63%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
24.05.25	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
20.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Operário Ferroviario	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.25	Lanús - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWWLL
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
23.05.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
18.05.25	FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - FBC Melgar	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
10.05.25	Cienciano - FBC Melgar	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.25	FBC Melgar - Lanús	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
02.04.25	FBC Melgar - Vasco da Gama	3:3

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