Match Info

ENGLAND: Premier League - Round 17

Date: 21 December 2024, Saturday

Location: Portman Road (Ipswich)

Referee: Attwell S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Ipswich Town		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	5.5	4	1.62
	4.8	4	1.68
	5.2	4.25	1.65	Watch
	5.4	4.25	1.65
	5.32	4.13	1.67	Watch
	5	4	1.65
	5.24	4.23	1.67	Watch
	5.2	4.25	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.21 ↑ (4.12)	4.14 ↑ (3.95)	1.66 ↓ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ipswich Town
18.5%

Draw
23.3%

Newcastle United
58.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.3%

24.3%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

25.2%

54.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ipswich Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newcastle United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ipswich Town than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.5%	17.5%	71.9%

Ipswich Town - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Ipswich will win (votes: 5 - 9.3%). Newcastle will win (votes: 40 - 74.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 62.4% – 85.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muric A. (G) 2. Clarke H. 26. O'Shea D. 15. Burgess C. 3. Davis L. 5. Morsy S. (C) 12. Cajuste J. 7. Burns W. 20. Hutchinson O. 23. Szmodics S. 10. Chaplin C.	1. Dubravka M. (G) 21. Livramento V. 5. Schar F. 33. Burn D. 20. Hall L. 8. Tonali S. 39. Guimaraes B. (C) 28. Willock J. 23. Murphy J. 14. Isak A. 10. Gordon A.
Substitutes
16. Al-Hamadi A. 33. Broadhead N. 47. Clarke J. 24. Greaves J. 18. Johnson B. 8. Phillips K. 14. Taylor J. 22. Townsend C. 28. Walton C. (G)	24. Almiron M. 11. Barnes H. 25. Kelly L. 36. Longstaff S. 67. Miley L. 18. Osula W. 13. Targett M. 2. Trippier K. 19. Vlachodimos O. (G)
Coaches
McKenna K.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
1', 0 - 1, Isak A. ⚽,
32', 0 - 2, Murphy J. ⚽, Gordon A. (A),
45+2', 0 - 3, Isak A. ⚽, Guimaraes B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Hutchinson O. ↓, Al-Hamadi A. ↑,
54', 0 - 4, Isak A. ⚽, Murphy J. (A),
62', Chaplin C. ↓, Taylor J. ↑,
63', Cajuste J. ↓, Phillips K. ↑,
65', Murphy J. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,
65', Livramento V. ↓, Trippier K. ↑,
65', Willock J. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
65', Morsy S. 🟨,
73', Isak A. ↓, Almiron M. ↑,
77', Al-Hamadi A. 🟨,
78', Burns W. ↓, Johnson B. ↑,
78', Szmodics S. ↓, Broadhead N. ↑,
80', Guimaraes B. ↓, Miley L. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 12).

Ipswich is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Newcastle is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ipswich could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Newcastle is a favorite.

There will not play in Ipswich: Delap L. (Yellow Cards) Donacien J. (Ankle Injury) Hirst G. (Knee Injury) Ogbene C. (Calf Injury) Szmodics S. (Illness) Tuanzebe A. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Newcastle: Joelinton (Yellow Cards) Krafth E. (Shoulder Injury) Lascelles J. (Knee Injury) Pope N. (Knee Injury) Wilson C. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Botman S. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ipswich won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1.5:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Ipswich won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ipswich Town
English Premier League
14.12.24	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Ipswich Town	1:2 ✺
08.12.24	Ipswich Town - Bournemouth	1:2 ✺
03.12.24	Ipswich Town - Crystal Palace	0:1 ✺
30.11.24	Nottingham Forest - Ipswich Town	1:0 ✺
24.11.24	Ipswich Town - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WLLLT
- Newcastle United
English League Cup
18.12.24	Newcastle United - Brentford	3:1 ✺
English Premier League
14.12.24	Newcastle United - Leicester City	4:0 ✺
07.12.24	Brentford - Newcastle United	4:2 ✺
04.12.24	Newcastle United - Liverpool	3:3 ✺
30.11.24	Crystal Palace - Newcastle United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
17.04.17	Ipswich Town - Newcastle United	3:1
22.10.16	Newcastle United - Ipswich Town	3:0

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