Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 43

Date: 18 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: Portman Road (Ipswich)

Referee: Barrott S. (Eng)


	Ipswich Town		Port Vale

	1	X	2
	1.22	6.5	13
	1.21	6.25	12.5
	1.2	6.45	15.75
	1.22	6.71	13.86
	1.2	5.8	15
	1.2	6.4	14.75	Watch
	1.21	6	13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↓ (1.42)	6.3 ↑ (4.36)	13.98 ↑ (6.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ipswich Town
78.2%

Draw
15%

Port Vale
6.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

21.1%

14.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.1%

19.8%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ipswich Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ipswich Town's performance.

Port Vale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Port Vale might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ipswich Town than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ipswich Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Port Vale could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	4.5%	13.6%

Ipswich Town - Port Vale Predictions

Users Predictions: Ipswich Town will win (18 of 22 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.7% – 97.94%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 18).

Ipswich has the most likely position - 1 (46.29%), project points - 95, currently - 85, not chance of relegated, a chance of prom. playoffs (16%), a good chance of promoted (90%), a chance of win league (46%).

Port Vale has the most likely position - 18 (29.88%), project points - 49, currently - 46, a small chance of relegated (7%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 21, importance 53, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Ipswich in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Port Vale is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Ipswich is absolute favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ipswich won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ipswich Town
English League One
15.04.23	Ipswich Town - Charlton Athletic	6:0 ✺
10.04.23	Cheltenham Town - Ipswich Town	1:1 ✺
07.04.23	Ipswich Town - Wycombe Wanderers	4:0 ✺
01.04.23	Derby County - Ipswich Town	0:2 ✺
18.03.23	Ipswich Town - Shrewsbury Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WTWWW
- Port Vale
English League One
15.04.23	Lincoln City - Port Vale	3:2 ✺
10.04.23	Port Vale - Oxford United	0:0 ✺
07.04.23	Accrington Stanley - Port Vale	3:0 ✺
01.04.23	Port Vale - Cambridge United	0:2 ✺
25.03.23	Portsmouth - Port Vale	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
25.10.22	Port Vale - Ipswich Town	2:3

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