Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 39

Date: 16 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Vale Park (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Simpson J. (Eng)


	Port Vale		Oxford United

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.2	2.25
	3.2	3.3	2.2
	3.3	3.4	2.15
	3.44	3.25	2.31
	3.44	3.23	2.31
	3.2	3.3	2.2
	3.31	3.38	2.21	Watch
	3.2	3.3	2.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↑ (3.09)	3.3 ↓ (3.46)	2.22 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Port Vale
28.6%

Draw
28.7%

Oxford United
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

27%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

28.2%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Vale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Oxford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	10%	40%

Port Vale - Oxford United Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Port Vale will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Oxford will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Port Vale: 19% – 81%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ripley C. (G) 7. Clark M. 6. Smith N. (C) 27. Debrah J. 3. Jones D. 16. Lowe J. 14. Ojo F. 19. Massey G. 8. Garrity B. 11. Mighten A. 29. Wilson J.	1. Cumming J. (G) 2. Long S. 5. Moore E. 3. Brown C. 12. Bennett J. 8. Brannagan C. 10. Bodin B. 30. Dale O. 20. Rodrigues R. 23. Murphy J. 25. Goodwin W.
Substitutes
10. Chislett E. 25. Dipepa B. 13. Leutwiler J. (G) 9. Loft R. 5. Lopata K. 21. Plant J. 23. Shorrock J.	11. Browne M. 13. Eastwood S. (G) 19. Goodrham T. 9. Harris M. 17. Henry J. 22. Leigh G. 6. McEachran J.
Coaches
Moore D.	Buckingham D.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 2.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Oxford will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Port Vale won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Port Vale won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-2.

Last Results with these Odds

Port Vale - the odds 3.09 are the expected chance of winning is 30.22%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Vale
English League One
12.03.24	Leyton Orient - Port Vale	0:0 ✺
09.03.24	Port Vale - Shrewsbury Town	1:2 ✺
02.03.24	Derby County - Port Vale	3:0 ✺
27.02.24	Port Vale - Fleetwood Town	2:2 ✺
24.02.24	Port Vale - Lincoln City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLLTL
- Oxford United
English League One
12.03.24	Bolton Wanderers - Oxford United	5:0 ✺
09.03.24	Oxford United - Cheltenham Town	2:1 ✺
02.03.24	Portsmouth - Oxford United	2:1 ✺
24.02.24	Oxford United - Leyton Orient	1:2 ✺
20.02.24	Oxford United - Northampton Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
02.09.23	Oxford United - Port Vale	1:2
10.04.23	Port Vale - Oxford United	0:0
12.11.22	Oxford United - Port Vale	4:0
English FA Cup
03.11.17	Port Vale - Oxford United	2:0
English League One
17.04.17	Oxford United - Port Vale	2:0
22.10.16	Port Vale - Oxford United	2:2
English League Two
02.03.13	Oxford United - Port Vale	2:1

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