Match Info

Date: 26 May 2022, Thursday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Vollkopf P. (Bra)


	Ituano		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.9	3.1	4.1
	1.97	3.1	3.75
	2.01	3.05	3.8
	1.91	3.27	4.87
	2	3	4
	1.9	3.25	4.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.38)	3.13 ↑ (2.8)	4.16 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
47.8%

Draw
29.8%

Náutico Capibaribe
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

33.3%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

34.7%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ituano's performance.

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ituano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	33.3%	22.2%

Ituano - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). Náutico will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ituano: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 13 and 16).

Ituano is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Náutico is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Ituano is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
21.05.22	Operário Ferroviario - Ituano	3:2 ✺
16.05.22	Ituano - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
07.05.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ituano	2:1 ✺
29.04.22	Ituano - Bahia	1:0 ✺
26.04.22	Sport Recife - Ituano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTLWL
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
19.05.22	Náutico Capibaribe - CS Alagoano	1:1 ✺
15.05.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Cruzeiro	0:1 ✺
06.05.22	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
03.05.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Guarani	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
30.04.22	Retrô Brasil - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLLTW

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