Match Info

J1 League - Round 17

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Fukuda Denshi Arena (Chiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	JEF United Chiba		Kashima Antlers

	1	X	2
	5	3.7	1.62	Watch
	5	3.6	1.68
	4.75	3.7	1.65	Watch
	5	3.89	1.71
	4.82	3.97	1.67	Watch
	4.8	3.5	1.67
	4.85	3.76	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.89 ↑ (4.82)	3.73 ↓ (3.97)	1.67 (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

JEF United Chiba
19.1%

Draw
25%

Kashima Antlers
55.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.6%

23.8%

56.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.1%

23.2%

58.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

JEF United Chiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Kashima Antlers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

The ML Model estimate for JEF United Chiba aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kashima Antlers than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

JEF United Chiba - Kashima Antlers Predictions

Users Predictions: Kashima Antlers will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Suarez J. (G) 2. Takahashi I. (C) 3. Kuboniwa R. 28. Kawano T. 67. Hidaka M. 15. Mae T. 44. Shinada M. 42. Issaka Z. 37. Himeno M. 8. Tsukui T. 10. Carlinhos Junior	1. Hayakawa T. (G) 22. Nono K. 55. Ueda N. 3. Kim Tae-Hyeon 2. Anzai K. 71. Araki R. 10. Shibasaki G. (C) 6. Misao K. 77. Cavric A. 9. Leo Ceara 40. Suzuki Y.
Substitutes
6. Eduardo 9. Goya H. 33. Igari Y. 18. Sugiyama N. 23. Suzuki R. (G) 4. Taguchi T. 7. Tanaka K. 41. Yasui T. 11. Yonekura K.	13. Chinen K. 20. Funabashi Y. 24. Hayashu H. 14. Higuchi Y. 29. Kajikawa Y. (G) 25. Koike R. 27. Matsumura Y. 19. Morooka S. 23. Tsukui K.
Coaches
Kobayashi Y.	Oniki T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, Araki R. ⚽, Suzuki Y. (A),
45+3', Carlinhos Junior 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Shinada M. ↓, Yasui T. ↑,
54', Issaka Z. 🟨,
61', Carlinhos Junior 🟨,
62', Shibasaki G. ↓, Higuchi Y. ↑,
63', Cavric A. ↓, Matsumura Y. ↑,
71', Himeno M. ↓, Goya H. ↑,
71', Issaka Z. ↓, Tanaka K. ↑,
76', Araki R. ↓, Morooka S. ↑,
76', Anzai K. ↓, Koike R. ↑,
85', Tsukui T. ↓, Sugiyama N. ↑,
87', Leo Ceara ↓, Hayashu H. ↑,
88', 0 - 2, Morooka S. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )).

JEF United has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kashima is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kashima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Kashima is considered a favorite.

There are questionable in JEF United: Ueda Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Kashima: Tagawa K. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, JEF United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kashima Antlers: 13.09% Chiba: 0.52%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Kashima Antlers	4	4	0	0	11:6	5	12
20	Chiba	4	0	0	4	2:13	-11	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- JEF United Chiba
Japan J1 League
10.05.26	JEF United Chiba - Machida Zelvia	0:2 ✺
06.05.26	Tokyo - JEF United Chiba	0:3 ✺
02.05.26	Urawa Red Diamonds - JEF United Chiba	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	JEF United Chiba - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:3 ✺
25.04.26	Kawasaki Frontale - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWLLL
- Kashima Antlers
Japan J1 League
10.05.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Kashima Antlers	1:2 penalties ✺
06.05.26	Kashima Antlers - Mito HollyHock	3:0 ✺
03.05.26	Kashima Antlers - Machida Zelvia	2:1 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Tokyo Verdy - Kashima Antlers	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Kashima Antlers	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
22.03.26	Kashima Antlers - JEF United Chiba	2:1

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