Match Info

J1 League - Round 15

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Mercari Stadium (Kashima)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	Kashima Antlers		Mito HollyHock

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.7	5.25	Watch
	1.68	3.6	4.95	Watch
	1.71	3.79	5.42
	1.66	3.76	5.38	Watch
	1.67	3.5	4.8
	1.7	3.62	4.95	Watch
	1.68	3.5	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.68)	3.64 ↑ (3.5)	5.08 ↑ (4.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kashima Antlers
55.9%

Draw
25.7%

Mito HollyHock
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

26.2%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

25.8%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kashima Antlers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Mito HollyHock has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kashima Antlers than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mito HollyHock than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

Kashima Antlers - Mito HollyHock Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kashima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Kashima Antlers will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hayakawa T. (G) 25. Koike R. 55. Ueda N. (C) 3. Kim Tae-Hyeon 2. Anzai K. 77. Cavric A. 14. Higuchi Y. 6. Misao K. 24. Hayashu H. 9. Leo Ceara 11. Tagawa K.	34. Nishikawa K. (G) 25. Mase T. 17. Itakura K. 4. Ushizawa T. 7. Omori S. 70. Matheus Leiria 19. Semba T. 3. Osaki K. 14. Arai M. 9. Nemoto R. 10. Watanabe A. (C)
Substitutes
71. Araki R. 20. Funabashi Y. 29. Kajikawa Y. (G) 27. Matsumura Y. 19. Morooka S. 22. Nono K. 7. Ogawa R. 40. Suzuki Y. 23. Tsukui K.	33. Ando K. 6. Iida T. 82. Kawakami K. 21. Matsubara S. (G) 20. Patryck 89. Sasaki K. 29. Tada K. 11. Torikai Y. 39. Yamamoto H.
Coaches
Oniki T.	Kimori D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Tagawa K. ↓, Morooka S. ↑,
19', Kim Tae-Hyeon 🟨,
30', Ushizawa T. 🟥,
34', Semba T. ↓, Iida T. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Arai M. ↓, Yamamoto H. ↑,
58', 1 - 0, Morooka S. ⚽, Kim Tae-Hyeon (A),
62', Mase T. ↓, Sasaki K. ↑,
68', Cavric A. ↓, Araki R. ↑,
68', Hayashu H. ↓, Suzuki Y. ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Leo Ceara ⚽, Anzai K. (A),
73', Watanabe A. ↓, Ando K. ↑,
73', Nemoto R. ↓, Patryck ↑,
79', 3 - 0, Leo Ceara ⚽, Suzuki Y. (A),
82', Koike R. ↓, Nono K. ↑,
83', Anzai K. ↓, Ogawa R. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kashima won 3.

Kashima is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mito HollyHock has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mito HollyHock may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Kashima is a strong favorite.

There are questionable in Kashima: Chinen K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Mito HollyHock: Kato C. (Hamstring Injury)

We predict that Kashima will win today's game, with odds of 1.68.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Kashima won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Kashima won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kashima Antlers: 13.09% Mito: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Kashima Antlers	4	4	0	0	11:6	5	12
11	Mito	4	1	2	1	6:5	1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kashima Antlers
Japan J1 League
03.05.26	Kashima Antlers - Machida Zelvia	2:1 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Tokyo Verdy - Kashima Antlers	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Kashima Antlers	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Kashima Antlers - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashima Antlers	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WLWWW
- Mito HollyHock
Japan J1 League
02.05.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Mito HollyHock	1:2 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Mito HollyHock - Machida Zelvia	2:3 penalties ✺
24.04.26	Tokyo - Mito HollyHock	5:2 ✺
19.04.26	Mito HollyHock - Kashiwa Reysol	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	JEF United Chiba - Mito HollyHock	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
04.04.26	Mito HollyHock - Kashima Antlers	2:1 penalties
Club Friendly
01.02.25	Mito HollyHock - Kashima Antlers	1:1
10.02.24	Kashima Antlers - Mito HollyHock	1:0
01.02.20	Mito HollyHock - Kashima Antlers	0:1
03.02.18	Mito HollyHock - Kashima Antlers	3:4
Japan Emperors Cup
14.10.15	Kashima Antlers - Mito HollyHock	0:1 penalties

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