Match Info

J1 League - Round 9

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Fukuda Denshi Arena (Chiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	JEF United Chiba		Tokyo Verdy

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.45	Watch
	2.82	3	2.52	Watch
	3.07	3.15	2.64
	2.78	3.19	2.64	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.5
	2.95	2.98	2.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.43)	3.04 ↓ (3.18)	2.55 ↓ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

JEF United Chiba
32.2%

Draw
31%

Tokyo Verdy
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

29.7%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

30.8%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

JEF United Chiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that JEF United Chiba's form might have worsened.

Tokyo Verdy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tokyo Verdy's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for JEF United Chiba than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for JEF United Chiba, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo Verdy than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

JEF United Chiba - Tokyo Verdy Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. JEF United will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - JEF United (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. JEF United (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Wakahara T. (G) 2. Takahashi I. 24. Toriumi K. (C) 28. Kawano T. 15. Mae T. 42. Issaka Z. 5. Kobayashi Y. 41. Yasui T. 8. Tsukui T. 20. Ishikawa D. 9. Goya H.	21. Nagasawa Y. (G) 36. Matsuda R. 5. Inoue R. 6. Miyahara K. 22. Uchida Y. 10. Morita K. (C) 16. Hirakawa R. 23. Fukazawa D. 7. Matsuhashi Y. 14. Fukuda Y. 9. Someno I.
Substitutes
32. Amagasa T. 67. Hidaka M. 37. Himeno M. 33. Igari Y. 39. Ishio R. 27. Iwai T. 19. Suarez J. (G) 18. Sugiyama N. 13. Suzuki D.	40. Arai Y. 4. Hayashi N. 25. Kumatoriya I. 31. Mawatari H. (G) 8. Saito K. 27. Shirai R. 11. Yamami H. 28. Yamamoto J. 55. Yoshida T.
Coaches
Kobayashi Y.	Hiroshi J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', Goya H. (Penalty Awarded),
19', 1 - 0, Goya H. ⚽,
40', 2 - 0, Goya H. ⚽,
44', Tsukui T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Uchida Y. ↓, Arai Y. ↑,
46', Fukazawa D. ↓, Yoshida T. ↑,
46', 2 - 1, Fukuda Y. ⚽,
62', 2 - 2, Yoshida T. ⚽,
65', Matsuhashi Y. ↓, Saito K. ↑,
70', Yasui T. ↓, Hidaka M. ↑,
70', Goya H. ↓, Himeno M. ↑,
73', Fukuda Y. ↓, Yamami H. ↑,
75', Matsuda R. 🟨,
78', Hirakawa R. ↓, Kumatoriya I. ↑,
82', Issaka Z. ↓, Sugiyama N. ↑,
83', Kobayashi Y. ↓, Igari Y. ↑,
85', 3 - 2, Hidaka M. ⚽, Takahashi I. (A),
87', Tsukui T. ↓, Iwai T. ↑,
90', Mae T. 🟨,
90+6', Kawano T. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, JEF United won 2.

JEF United has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tokyo Verdy's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in JEF United: Tanaka K. (Knee Injury) Ueda Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Tokyo Verdy: Hayashi N. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, JEF United won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:26. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, JEF United won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.3:1.1).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Verdy: 0.65% Chiba: 0.52%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
19	Verdy	4	0	2	2	2:6	-4	2
20	Chiba	4	0	0	4	2:13	-11	0

Last Results with these Odds

Tokyo Verdy - the odds 3.02 are the expected chance of winning is 31.32%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- JEF United Chiba
Japan J1 League
22.03.26	Kashima Antlers - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
18.03.26	JEF United Chiba - Tokyo	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - JEF United Chiba	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	JEF United Chiba - Kashiwa Reysol	2:1 ✺
27.02.26	Machida Zelvia - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LLLWL
- Tokyo Verdy
Japan J1 League
22.03.26	Tokyo Verdy - Tokyo	1:0 penalties ✺
18.03.26	Tokyo Verdy - Kawasaki Frontale	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Tokyo Verdy - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Kashima Antlers - Tokyo Verdy	2:0 ✺
27.02.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Tokyo Verdy	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
26.11.23	Tokyo Verdy - JEF United Chiba	2:1
22.10.23	Tokyo Verdy - JEF United Chiba	3:2
16.04.23	JEF United Chiba - Tokyo Verdy	1:0
26.06.22	JEF United Chiba - Tokyo Verdy	3:1
23.04.22	Tokyo Verdy - JEF United Chiba	1:1
24.10.21	Tokyo Verdy - JEF United Chiba	1:5
13.06.21	JEF United Chiba - Tokyo Verdy	0:1

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