Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 12

Date: 20 October 2025, Monday

Location: AFAS Trainingscomplex (Wijdewormer)

Referee: Gerrets L. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 4


	Jong AZ Alkmaar		Willem II

	1	X	2
	3.05	3.6	2.1	Watch
	2.98	3.95	2.08
	3	4.09	2.21
	2.45	3.71	2.45	Watch
	3.09	3.72	2.08	Watch
	2.45	3.65	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.44)	3.79 ↑ (3.7)	2.24 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jong AZ Alkmaar
33.2%

Draw
24.8%

Willem II
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

24.8%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

24.3%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Willem II has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.5%	15.8%	73.7%

Jong AZ Alkmaar - Willem II Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Jong AZ will win (votes: 2 - 10.5%). Willem II will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Willem II: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Jong AZ (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Willem II (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Willem II (1.42) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Jong AZ (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Willem II (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Deen D. (G) 2. Zwart J. 4. van Duijl B. 3. Menu M. 5. Dijkstra E. 8. Kwakman D. 6. Twisk N. (C) 7. Toppenberg K. 10. Boogaard K. 11. van Duijn S. 9. Zeefuik L.	1. Didillon T. (G) 2. Ciranni A. 30. Behounek R. 4. Hoogma J. (C) 3. Stam F. 19. van Aalst U. 6. Besselink G. 7. Doodeman N. 20. El Allouchi M. 8. Culum A. 9. Haen D.
Substitutes
14. Hamdi Y. 23. Schilder K. (G) 15. Smits A. 17. van den Ban Y. 12. van der Klaauw D. 16. Zeggen K. (G)	47. Baartmans S. 17. Bamba S. 31. de Leeuw K. (G) 11. Kehrer E. 14. Mathijsen J. 24. Tjoe a On N. 41. van der Linden B. (G) 22. van Loon P. 45. van Maarschalkerwaard P. 18. Zarrouk A.
Coaches
Echteld L.	Stegeman J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Boogaard K. ⚽, Kwakman D. (A),
34', 2 - 0, van Duijn S. ⚽, Toppenberg K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Doodeman N. ↓, Kehrer E. ↑,
46', Zeefuik L. ↓, van den Ban Y. ↑,
46', Culum A. ↓, Bamba S. ↑,
50', Toppenberg K. 🟨,
63', Kwakman D. ↓, Smits A. ↑,
64', El Allouchi M. ↓, Baartmans S. ↑,
67', 3 - 0, Toppenberg K. ⚽, Smits A. (A),
74', Zwart J. 🟨,
74', Stam F. ↓, Mathijsen J. ↑,
74', Toppenberg K. ↓, van der Klaauw D. ↑,
78', Zwart J. ↓, Hamdi Y. ↑,
87', 4 - 0, van Duijn S. ⚽, Boogaard K. (A),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )).

Jong AZ is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Willem II is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Willem II: Lachkar A. (Groin Injury) Mathieu D. (Knee Injury) van Berkel N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Jong AZ: Inge K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Willem II: Schuurman J. (Knock)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Jong AZ won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 0.8:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Jong AZ won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Jong AZ Alkmaar - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.6%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jong AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eerste Divisie
17.10.25	Helmond Sport - Jong AZ Alkmaar	4:2 ✺
03.10.25	Jong AZ Alkmaar - ADO Den Haag	0:4 ✺
30.09.25	Jong Utrecht - Jong AZ Alkmaar	0:0 ✺
26.09.25	Den Bosch - Jong AZ Alkmaar	2:3 ✺
22.09.25	Jong AZ Alkmaar - De Graafschap	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLTWL
- Willem II
Dutch Eerste Divisie
17.10.25	Waalwijk - Willem II	2:3 ✺
03.10.25	Willem II - Roda	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Willem II - Helmond Sport	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	Vitesse - Willem II	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Willem II - Jong Ajax	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.04.24	Willem II - Jong AZ Alkmaar	4:1
29.09.23	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Willem II	0:2
06.03.23	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Willem II	2:2
16.09.22	Willem II - Jong AZ Alkmaar	1:0

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