Match Info

Serie B - Round 23

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Romeo Menti (Castellammare di Stabia)

Referee: Zanotti A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Juve Stabia		Padova

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.4	4.75	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.8
	1.75	3.3	4.75	Watch
	1.85	3.31	5.51
	1.72	3.39	5.29	Watch
	1.75	3.1	4.75
	1.82	3.43	4.78	Watch
	1.73	3.33	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (2.08)	3.33 ↑ (3.17)	5 ↑ (3.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juve Stabia
53.1%

Draw
28.1%

Padova
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

29.5%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

28.8%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juve Stabia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Juve Stabia's performance.

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Padova might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juve Stabia than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Juve Stabia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Padova could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.2%	31.6%	5.3%

Juve Stabia - Padova Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Juve Stabia will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). Padova will win (votes: 1 - 5.6%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Juve Stabia: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Juve Stabia will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Confente A. (G) 33. Giorgini A. 21. Kassama S. 6. Bellich M. (C) 24. Carissoni L. 37. Maistro F. 29. Correia O. 55. Leone G. 77. Cacciamani A. 98. Mosti N. 9. Gabrielloni A.	22. Sorrentino A. (G) 72. Faedo C. 32. Sgarbi F. 5. Perrotta M. (C) 41. Silva J. 8. Fusi P. 44. Harder J. 23. Di Maggio L. 3. Barreca A. 20. Bortolussi M. 77. Di Mariano F.
Substitutes
23. Boer P. (G) 7. Burnete R. 17. Ciammaglichella A. 14. Dalle Mura C. 76. Mannini M. 70. Matheu P. 90. Okoro A. 10. Pierobon C. 2. Ricciardi M. 16. Signorini A. (G) 28. Torrasi E. 8. Zeroli K.	4. Belli F. 92. Buonaiuto C. 17. Capelli A. 6. Crisetig L. 30. Favale G. 14. Fortin M. (G) 18. Ghiglione P. 86. Giunti G. 15. Lasagna K. 11. Seghetti A. 7. Varas K. 55. Villa L.
Coaches
Abate I.	Andreoletti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', Perrotta M. 🟨,
19', Leone G. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Gabrielloni A. (Penalty Awarded),
38', Correia O. ↓, Pierobon C. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
46', Di Maggio L. ↓, Lasagna K. ↑,
46', Faedo C. ↓, Belli F. ↑,
46', Maistro F. ↓, Zeroli K. ↑,
47', Fusi P. 🟨,
50', 2 - 0, Zeroli K. ⚽,
62', Silva J. ↓, Varas K. ↑,
62', Di Mariano F. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
69', Cacciamani A. ↓, Ricciardi M. ↑,
69', Mosti N. ↓, Burnete R. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Buonaiuto C. ⚽,
76', Perrotta M. ↓, Capelli A. ↑,
80', 3 - 1, Burnete R. ⚽, Carissoni L. (A),
86', 3 - 2, Capelli A. ⚽,
90', 3 - 3, Bortolussi M. ⚽, Varas K. (A),
90+1', Ricciardi M. 🟨,
90+3', Gabrielloni A. ↓, Okoro A. ↑,
90+8', Capelli A. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juve Stabia won 1.

Juve Stabia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Padova is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Juve Stabia is the team to beat.

There will not play in Juve Stabia: Battistella T. (Knee Injury) Candellone L. (Injury) Diakite S. (Inactive) Morachioli G. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Injury) Caprari G. (Inactive)

We predict that Juve Stabia will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Juve Stabia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Juve Stabia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Padova	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7
19	Juve Stabia	6	1	3	2	5:8	-3	2

Last Results with these Odds

Juve Stabia - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.95%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juve Stabia
Italian Serie B
01.02.26	Reggiana - Juve Stabia	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Juve Stabia - Virtus Entella	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Bari - Juve Stabia	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Juve Stabia - Pescara	2:2 ✺
27.12.25	Juve Stabia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TWWTW
- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
01.02.26	Padova - Monza	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Padova	3:0 ✺
17.01.26	Padova - Mantova	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Padova - Modena	2:0 ✺
27.12.25	Palermo - Padova	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
26.10.25	Padova - Juve Stabia	2:2
25.03.14	Juve Stabia - Padova	1:1
19.10.13	Padova - Juve Stabia	2:1
26.02.13	Padova - Juve Stabia	1:0
29.09.12	Juve Stabia - Padova	1:0
13.04.12	Juve Stabia - Padova	2:0

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