Match Info

Serie B - Round 21

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Marco Druso (Bolzano)

Referee: Allegretta C. G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Slovenia	Sport TV3
Switzerland	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
World	Onefootball


	Südtirol-Alto Adige		Padova

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.1	4.5	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.6
	1.92	3.05	4.15	Watch
	1.99	3.12	4.84
	1.97	3.08	4.31	Watch
	1.95	3	4
	1.94	3.15	4.57	Watch
	1.9	3	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.05)	3.08 ↓ (3.13)	4.34 ↑ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Südtirol-Alto Adige
47.9%

Draw
30.5%

Padova
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

29.8%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

28.7%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Südtirol-Alto Adige has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.8%	55.6%	16.7%

Südtirol Alto Adige - Padova Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Südtirol will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Padova will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 32.6% – 78.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Südtirol (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Südtirol (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Südtirol (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Südtirol (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Adamonis M. (G) 94. El Kaouakibi H. 28. Kofler R. 34. Veseli F. 79. Molina S. 21. Tait F. (C) 18. Tronchin S. 17. Casiraghi D. 7. Zedadka K. 33. Merkaj S. 9. Pecorino E.	22. Sorrentino A. (G) 32. Sgarbi F. 5. Perrotta M. (C) 3. Barreca A. 20. Bortolussi M. 15. Lasagna K. 8. Fusi P. 44. Harder J. 55. Villa L. 17. Capelli A. 7. Varas K.
Substitutes
3. Bordon F. 46. Brik D. 89. Crnigoj D. 23. Davi F. 24. Davi S. 26. Frigerio M. R. 8. Mallamo A. 4. Mancini D. 90. Odogwu R. 1. Poluzzi G. (G) 13. Sabatini C. 99. Verdi S.	33. Baselli D. 4. Belli F. 92. Buonaiuto C. 6. Crisetig L. 23. Di Maggio L. 72. Faedo C. 30. Favale G. 14. Fortin M. (G) 18. Ghiglione P. 58. Pastina C. 11. Seghetti A. 41. Silva J.
Coaches
Castori F.	Andreoletti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
26', Villa L. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Merkaj S. ⚽, Molina S. (A),
38', 2 - 0, Pecorino E. ⚽, El Kaouakibi H. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Villa L. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
60', Kofler R. 🟨,
61', Lasagna K. ↓, Seghetti A. ↑,
61', Harder J. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
64', Zedadka K. 🟨,
65', Tait F. ↓, Frigerio M. R. ↑,
65', Zedadka K. ↓, Davi S. ↑,
76', Tronchin S. ↓, Crnigoj D. ↑,
76', Pecorino E. ↓, Odogwu R. ↑,
77', Barreca A. ↓, Baselli D. ↑,
86', Molina S. ↓, Davi F. ↑,
87', Frigerio M. R. 🟨,
87', Castori F. 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 0, Casiraghi D. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Südtirol won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Padova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Südtirol will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Südtirol: Martini J. (Injury) Masiello A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Injury) Barreca A. (Inactive)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Südtirol won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 0.6:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Südtirol won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 0.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sudtirol	6	3	3	0	9:3	6	12
10	Padova	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
17.01.26	Empoli - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Spezia	2:1 ✺
27.12.25	Juve Stabia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Virtus Entella - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Bari	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWLTT
- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
17.01.26	Padova - Mantova	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Padova - Modena	2:0 ✺
27.12.25	Palermo - Padova	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Padova - Sampdoria	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Reggiana - Padova	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
01.11.25	Padova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1
Italian Serie C Group A
16.04.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Padova	0:0
Coppa Italia Serie C
06.04.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Padova	0:1
09.03.22	Padova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0
Italian Serie C Group A
12.12.21	Padova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0
Italian Serie C Group B
21.02.21	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Padova	1:1
25.10.20	Padova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:0

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