Match Info

Serie B - Round 20

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Euganeo (Padova)

Referee: Calzavara A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Padova		Mantova

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.25	3.05	3.15	Watch
	2.23	3.23	3.26	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3
	2.35	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.35)	3.11 ↓ (3.13)	3.23 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Padova
41%

Draw
30%

Mantova
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

29.8%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

28.9%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Mantova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	40%	6.7%

Padova - Mantova Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Mantova will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Padova: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Mantova (2.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mantova (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Sorrentino A. (G) 4. Belli F. 32. Sgarbi F. 5. Perrotta M. 18. Ghiglione P. 8. Fusi P. 6. Crisetig L. 7. Varas K. 17. Capelli A. 20. Bortolussi M. 10. Papu Gomez (C)	24. Bardi F. (G) 27. Castellini A. 7. Mensah D. (C) 29. Cella S. 17. Radaelli N. 21. Trimboli S. 10. Wieser D. 6. Bani C. 36. Paoletti F. 23. Marras T. 19. Ruocco F.
Substitutes
33. Baselli D. 92. Buonaiuto C. 23. Di Maggio L. 72. Faedo C. 30. Favale G. 14. Fortin M. (G) 44. Harder J. 15. Lasagna K. 58. Pastina C. 11. Seghetti A. 41. Silva J. 55. Villa L.	22. Andrenacci L. (G) 2. Bianay Balcot C. 30. Bragantini D. 77. Buso N. 18. Falletti C. 11. Fiori A. 9. Mancuso L. 33. Marai C. 4. Mullen S. 53. Pittino T. 34. Vukovic A. (G) 98. Zuccon F.
Coaches
Andreoletti M.	Modesto F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Mensah D. ⚽, Radaelli N. (A),
36', Cella S. 🟨,
37', Sgarbi F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ghiglione P. ↓, Lasagna K. ↑,
46', Crisetig L. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
46', Perrotta M. ↓, Villa L. ↑,
49', Paoletti F. 🟨,
62', Sgarbi F. ↓, Faedo C. ↑,
63', Marras T. ↓, Buso N. ↑,
63', Ruocco F. ↓, Zuccon F. ↑,
66', 0 - 2, Mensah D. ⚽, Trimboli S. (A),
70', Fusi P. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
70', Mensah D. ↓, Mancuso L. ↑,
77', Varas K. 🟨,
81', 1 - 2, Lasagna K. ⚽, Capelli A. (A),
90+2', Radaelli N. ↓, Bianay Balcot C. ↑,
90+3', Sorrentino A. 🟨,
90+5', Bani C. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 1.

Padova has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mantova is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Padova could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Injury) Favale G. (Inactive)

There will not play in Mantova: Artioli F. (Inactive) Bonfanti N. (Inactive) Caprini M. (Inactive) Majer Z. (Inactive) Mantovani V. (Calf Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Padova won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 24:13. (average 1.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:7. (average 1.3:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mantova	5	3	2	0	10:5	5	11
10	Padova	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
11.01.26	Padova - Modena	2:0 ✺
27.12.25	Palermo - Padova	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Padova - Sampdoria	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Reggiana - Padova	1:2 ✺
08.12.25	Padova - Cesena	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WLTWT
- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
11.01.26	Mantova - Palermo	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	Carrarese - Mantova	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Mantova - Empoli	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Cesena - Mantova	3:2 ✺
08.12.25	Mantova - Reggiana	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
08.11.25	Mantova - Padova	1:0
Italian Serie C Group A
08.01.24	Padova - Mantova	0:5
04.09.23	Mantova - Padova	1:1
22.04.23	Mantova - Padova	1:3
17.12.22	Padova - Mantova	1:1
16.03.22	Padova - Mantova	1:0
07.11.21	Mantova - Padova	1:1

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