Match Info

Serie B - Round 22

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Euganeo (Padova)

Referee: Massimi L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, Destination Calcio, LAB Channel
Slovenia	Sport TV3
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, Fox
World	Onefootball


	Padova		Monza

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.6	1.66	Watch
	4.2	3.3	1.85
	4.75	3.4	1.72	Watch
	5.58	3.57	1.76
	5.11	3.35	1.75	Watch
	5	3.3	1.7
	4.86	3.68	1.74	Watch
	5.5	3.4	1.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.97 ↑ (4.35)	3.45 ↑ (3.43)	1.73 ↓ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Padova
18.8%

Draw
27.1%

Monza
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.5%

27.2%

51.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9%

26.4%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Monza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monza than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

Padova - Monza Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Monza will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monza: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Monza (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Sorrentino A. (G) 72. Faedo C. 32. Sgarbi F. 5. Perrotta M. 17. Capelli A. 8. Fusi P. 44. Harder J. 23. Di Maggio L. 3. Barreca A. 20. Bortolussi M. 10. Papu Gomez (C)	20. Thiam D. (G) 13. Ravanelli L. 44. Carboni A. 2. Brorsson A. 19. Birindelli S. 14. Obiang P. 8. Hernani 7. Azzi P. 28. Colpani A. 32. Pessina M. (C) 47. Mota D.
Substitutes
4. Belli F. 92. Buonaiuto C. 6. Crisetig L. 77. Di Mariano F. 14. Fortin M. (G) 18. Ghiglione P. 15. Lasagna K. 58. Pastina C. 11. Seghetti A. 41. Silva J. 7. Varas K. 55. Villa L.	25. Alvarez A. 24. Bakoune A. 17. Balde K. 27. Capolupo S. 30. Caso G. 26. Ciurria P. 10. Cutrone P. 15. Delli Carri F. 3. Lucchesi L. 52. Mout M. 1. Pizzignacco S. (G) 43. Strajnar A. (G)
Coaches
Andreoletti M.	Bianco P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', Brorsson A. 🟨,
17', 1 - 0, Bortolussi M. (Penalty Awarded),
24', Perrotta M. 🟨,
39', Faedo C. 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Colpani A. ⚽, Birindelli S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Perrotta M. ↓, Villa L. ↑,
63', Papu Gomez ↓, Lasagna K. ↑,
65', Mota D. ↓, Cutrone P. ↑,
65', Obiang P. ↓, Caso G. ↑,
67', Di Maggio L. ↓, Varas K. ↑,
74', Sgarbi F. 🟨,
84', Hernani ↓, Ciurria P. ↑,
84', Brorsson A. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Alvarez A. ⚽, Caso G. (A),
90', Colpani A. ↓, Lucchesi L. ↑,
90', Harder J. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
90', Barreca A. ↓, Di Mariano F. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Padova is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Monza is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Padova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Monza is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Injury) Caprari G. (Inactive)

There will not play in Monza: Antov V. (Knee Injury) Colombo L. (Yellow Cards) Forson O. (Knee Injury) Galazzi N. (Inactive) Mota D. (Inactive) Petagna A. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Padova won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Including home match between the teams, Padova won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Padova	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
25.01.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Padova	3:0 ✺
17.01.26	Padova - Mantova	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Padova - Modena	2:0 ✺
27.12.25	Palermo - Padova	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Padova - Sampdoria	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLWLT
- Monza 1912
Italian Serie B
24.01.26	Monza - Pescara	3:0 ✺
17.01.26	Monza - Frosinone	2:2 ✺
10.01.26	Virtus Entella - Monza	1:0 ✺
26.12.25	Modena - Monza	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Monza - Carrarese	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
27.09.25	Monza - Padova	0:1
Coppa Italia
05.08.18	Padova - Monza	1:0

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